| Going up | Going down | Team going up? |
| Jets get picks 14, 191 - 1115 points | Panthers get picks 21, 59, 164 - 1136 points | Loses 21 points |
| Broncos get pick 17 - 950 points | Jaguars get picks 21, 86, 198 - 972 points | Loses 22 points |
| Browns get pick 22 - 780 points | Cowboys get pick 36, 2008 1st - 1090 points | Loses 310 points, more likely around 220 |
| Cowboys get pick 26 - 700 points | Eagles get pick 36, 87, 159 - 723 points | Loses 23 points |
| 49ers get pick 28 - 660 points | Patriots get pick 110, 2008 1st - 544 points | Nets 116 points, more likely around 216 |
| Cardinals get pick 33 - 580 points | Raiders get picks 38, 105 - 604 points | Loses 24 points |
| Bills get pick 34 - 560 points | Lions get picks 43, 74 - 650 points | Loses 90 points |
| Chargers get pick 37 - 530 points | Bears get picks 62, 93, 167, 2008 3rd - 483 points | Nets 47 points, more likely around 37 |
| Falcons get pick 41 - 490 points | Vikings get picks 44, 121 - 512 points | Loses 22 points |
| Colts get pick 42 - 480 points | 49ers get picks 126, 2008 1st rounder - 316 points | Nets 164 points, more likely around 70 |
| Jets get picks 47, 235 - 431 points | Packers get picks 63, 89, 191 - 436 points | Loses 5 points |
| Browns get pick 53, 195 - 383 points | Cowboys get picks 67, 103, 178 - 363 points | Nets 20 points |
| Lions get pick 58 - 320 points | Saints get picks 66, 145 - 294 points | Nets 26 points |
| Lions get pick 61 - 292 points | Ravens get picks 74, 101 - 316 points | Loses 24 points |
| Ravens get pick 86 - 160 points | Jaguars get picks 101, 166, 203 - 131 points | Nets 29 points |
| Raiders get pick 91 - 136 points | Patriots gets 2008 3rd, pick 211 - 119 points | Nets 17 points |
| Vikings get pick 102 - 92 points | Bucs get picks 106, 182 - 101 points | Loses 9 points |
| Saints get pick 107 - 80 points | Texans get picks 123, 163 - 75 points | Nets 5 points |
| Steelers get pick 112 - 70 points | Packers get pick 119, 192 - 71 points | Loses 1 point |
| Lions get pick 117 - 60 points | Rams get picks 139, 154 - 66 points | Loses 6 points |
| Broncos get pick 121 - 52 points | Vikings get picks 176, 233, 2008 3rd - 74 points | Loses 22 points |
| Jaguars get pick 149 - 32 points | Falcons get picks 194, 198, 203 - 36 points | Loses 4 points |
| Cowboys get pick 195 - 13 points | Browns get picks 200, 234 - 12 points | Nets 1 point |
Monday, April 30, 2007
Analyzing every trade involving only draft picks
After a slow 1st half of the 1st round, there was a flurry of trades in the 2nd half of the first well into the 2nd round. After hearing Peter King moaning about the difficulty in trading back, I expected most teams trading back to lose equity in draft picks based on Jimmy Johnson's chart of the early 90s. Picks for 2008 were devalued a round, and for where I indicated "more likely" I gave the Chargers and Colts 10-6 records, the Browns a 7-9 record, and the 49ers going 9-7, taking into consideration the NFL's trend toward parity and the 49ers strong finish and weak schedule. However, 14 teams gained value as opposed to 9 teams losing value. One team that lost value is the Browns, who absolutely got creamed losing 220 points (an early 3rd) even if they win 7 games next year. Although it looks like the Patriots lost a lot of value trading out of the 1st, the 4th round pick they got was slightly ahead of the Packers' and they acquired it with the thought of trading it for Randy Moss in mind.
Steal of the draft
I don't know how anyone is going to turn out as pros, so it's hard to say anyone is a steal or a reach. But one move stands out as the most ridiculously good move of the draft: the Cowboys trading down from 22 to the 2nd round picking up the Browns 1st rounder for next year, and then trading back up to 26 giving up a 3rd and a 5th. So they traded down 4 picks and gave up a 3rd and a 5th for a likely top 10 pick for next year. They were able to use the pressure on NFL teams to end Brady Quinn's slide to get a king's ransom trading down, and the Eagles insane draft grade on Kolb to trade back up. Now they're in great position to replace their backfield platoon with Mr. Run DMC Darren McFadden, maybe shore up the offensive line with Jake Long (Michigan) or Jared Gaither (Maryland), or draft a QB like Chad Henne or Brian Brohm if Romo looks more like the guy from the second half of the season than the guy from the 1st half.
The not so Mighty Quinn
It seems like the fans and media don't consider a draft a success unless a team drafts a quarterback. Footage from various teams draft parties showed fans booing picks that weren't for skill position players. The media is taking nonstop shots at poor Miami after passing on Notre Dame's Brady Quinn. Quinn dropped all the way to the 22nd pick; the player the chose was expected to go no later than 19. So why is that more of a reach than taking Quinn would have been? Because no one focuses on the various downsides to drafting a quarterback.
Drafting a player is like adopting a pet, while drafting a quarterback is like adopting a child. So many more resources are required in grooming a QB, in terms of coaching and practice, than at any other position. And what's the upside? Atlanta drafts Matt Schaub in the 3rd round, nurse him along, coach him up, and then trade him for the equivalent of a mid first. That may seem like a good move, but in the 3rd round they could have drafted another player that would play more than a handful of games in the last few years, and it is a longshot for a QB drafted outside the first round to pan out. Or you can take a team like the Vikings, who took Tarvaris Jackson last year in the 2nd round. They go with him as the starter and if he doesn't turn into at least a solid player the franchise is set back 3 years. So bravo to the Dolphins for taking an explosive player instead of a QB who has done more damage to the United States armed forces the last 4 years than any foreign presence, with 10 TDs against the service academies last year alone.
Drafting a player is like adopting a pet, while drafting a quarterback is like adopting a child. So many more resources are required in grooming a QB, in terms of coaching and practice, than at any other position. And what's the upside? Atlanta drafts Matt Schaub in the 3rd round, nurse him along, coach him up, and then trade him for the equivalent of a mid first. That may seem like a good move, but in the 3rd round they could have drafted another player that would play more than a handful of games in the last few years, and it is a longshot for a QB drafted outside the first round to pan out. Or you can take a team like the Vikings, who took Tarvaris Jackson last year in the 2nd round. They go with him as the starter and if he doesn't turn into at least a solid player the franchise is set back 3 years. So bravo to the Dolphins for taking an explosive player instead of a QB who has done more damage to the United States armed forces the last 4 years than any foreign presence, with 10 TDs against the service academies last year alone.
Saturday, April 28, 2007
Real final mock
1. Oakland Raiders - JaMarcus Russell QB LSU. The pressure is enormous to draft a QB.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers from Detroit Lions, Detroit gets 1st (4th), and 2nd (64th) round picks - Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech. Detroit gets historically little to move down.
3. Cleveland Browns - Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame. The pressure on them to draft to quarterback is also enormous.
4. Detroit Lions - Gaines Adams DE Clemson. Detroit gets the guy they wanted at 2.
5. Arizona Cardinals - Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin. You have to figure this is Arizona's #1 guy; they draft on need more than most.
6. Washington Redskins - Amobi Okoye DT Louisville. Skins prioritize D line.
7. Minnesota Vikings - LaRon Landry S LSU. Peterson would obviously also be an option.
8. Atlanta Falcons - Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma. Dunn is in his last season with the Falcons, they do like Norwood but you need 2 backs.
9. Miami Dolphins - Levi Brown OT Penn State. If the Dolphins can't get Quinn they'll go with the top O-lineman.
10. Houston Texans - Leon Hall CB Michigan. Corner is their biggest need and it sounds like Hall has held off Revis for the top spot.
11. San Francisco 49ers - Adam Carriker DE Nebraska. Mike Nolan loves to give the 3-4 look, Carriker can play inside in a 4-3 or outside in a 3-4.
12. Buffalo Bills - Patrick Willis ILB Ole Miss. There's a very real chance the Bills go way way off the board here.
13. St. Louis Rams - Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas. At 6'6" 288 lbs you love the size. The Rams are also interested in Ginn.
14. Carolina Panthers - Greg Olsen TE Miami. Huge need for Carolina, seems like a match.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Darrelle Revis CB Pittsburgh. LB is a greater need, but that would be a reach here. Plus I like the idea of keeping Revis local.
16. Green Bay Packers - Marshawn Lynch RB California. The Packers have been linked to Lynch for months. This pick might also be in play for Randy Moss.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Reggie Nelson S Florida. Anthony Spencer, Timmons, or trading down are also possibilities, but they could really use a safety here.
18. Cincinatti Bengals - Lawrence Timmons OLB Florida State. The Bengals will take the best defensive player available, and all their starting LBs from last year are gone.
19. Tennessee Titans - Ted Ginn, Jr WR Ohio State. They need a target for Vick with Drew Bennett gone and a return specialist with Pacman in purgatory.
20. New York Giants - Joe Staley OT Central Michigan. Not a sexy pick but they've desperately needed a LT since Petitgout left.
21. Denver Broncos - Alan Branch DT Michigan. Since Dan Wilkinson nixed a trade here, Denver would be thrilled to land someone even fatter!
22. Dallas Cowboys - Robert Meachem WR Tennessee. He reminds me a little of TO with the ball in his hands, he breaks tackles in a similar manner.
23. Kansas City Chiefs - Aaron Ross CB Texas. I've had them taking a WR, but that's not Carl Peterson's style. Ross can also return kicks with Hall shipped to St. Louis.
24. New England Patriots - Brandon Meriweather S Miami. Both their safeties are coming off of major injuries, the safeties from the U have a good history.
25. New York Jets - Jarvis Moss Florida DE/OLB. Hybrids like Moss are tough to project in mock drafts because every team that has a 3-4 look can reach on them.
26. Philadelphia Eagles - Michael Griffin S Texas. The Eagles will definitely take a defensive back, I'll say they go with one who can play special teams.
27. New Orleans Saints - Justin Harrell DT Tennessee. Cornerback was their biggest need, but they just signed Jason David to a big offer sheet.
28. New England Patriots - David Harris ILB Michigan. PFT says mark it down.
29. Baltimore Ravens - Ben Grubbs G Auburn. Dwayne Bowe, Ryan Kalil, and Justin Blalock are the other options here.
30. San Diego Chargers - Dwayne Bowe WR LSU. Comes down to Bowe versus Jarrett and they take they guy with the measurables.
31. Chicago Bears - Jon Beason OLB Miami. OLB is a need even if they get Briggs signed.
32. Indianapolis Colts - Paul Posluszny OLB Penn State. With Cato June gone they have a big hole, and this guy just looks like a member of the Colts' defense (not a compliment).
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers from Detroit Lions, Detroit gets 1st (4th), and 2nd (64th) round picks - Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech. Detroit gets historically little to move down.
3. Cleveland Browns - Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame. The pressure on them to draft to quarterback is also enormous.
4. Detroit Lions - Gaines Adams DE Clemson. Detroit gets the guy they wanted at 2.
5. Arizona Cardinals - Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin. You have to figure this is Arizona's #1 guy; they draft on need more than most.
6. Washington Redskins - Amobi Okoye DT Louisville. Skins prioritize D line.
7. Minnesota Vikings - LaRon Landry S LSU. Peterson would obviously also be an option.
8. Atlanta Falcons - Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma. Dunn is in his last season with the Falcons, they do like Norwood but you need 2 backs.
9. Miami Dolphins - Levi Brown OT Penn State. If the Dolphins can't get Quinn they'll go with the top O-lineman.
10. Houston Texans - Leon Hall CB Michigan. Corner is their biggest need and it sounds like Hall has held off Revis for the top spot.
11. San Francisco 49ers - Adam Carriker DE Nebraska. Mike Nolan loves to give the 3-4 look, Carriker can play inside in a 4-3 or outside in a 3-4.
12. Buffalo Bills - Patrick Willis ILB Ole Miss. There's a very real chance the Bills go way way off the board here.
13. St. Louis Rams - Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas. At 6'6" 288 lbs you love the size. The Rams are also interested in Ginn.
14. Carolina Panthers - Greg Olsen TE Miami. Huge need for Carolina, seems like a match.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Darrelle Revis CB Pittsburgh. LB is a greater need, but that would be a reach here. Plus I like the idea of keeping Revis local.
16. Green Bay Packers - Marshawn Lynch RB California. The Packers have been linked to Lynch for months. This pick might also be in play for Randy Moss.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Reggie Nelson S Florida. Anthony Spencer, Timmons, or trading down are also possibilities, but they could really use a safety here.
18. Cincinatti Bengals - Lawrence Timmons OLB Florida State. The Bengals will take the best defensive player available, and all their starting LBs from last year are gone.
19. Tennessee Titans - Ted Ginn, Jr WR Ohio State. They need a target for Vick with Drew Bennett gone and a return specialist with Pacman in purgatory.
20. New York Giants - Joe Staley OT Central Michigan. Not a sexy pick but they've desperately needed a LT since Petitgout left.
21. Denver Broncos - Alan Branch DT Michigan. Since Dan Wilkinson nixed a trade here, Denver would be thrilled to land someone even fatter!
22. Dallas Cowboys - Robert Meachem WR Tennessee. He reminds me a little of TO with the ball in his hands, he breaks tackles in a similar manner.
23. Kansas City Chiefs - Aaron Ross CB Texas. I've had them taking a WR, but that's not Carl Peterson's style. Ross can also return kicks with Hall shipped to St. Louis.
24. New England Patriots - Brandon Meriweather S Miami. Both their safeties are coming off of major injuries, the safeties from the U have a good history.
25. New York Jets - Jarvis Moss Florida DE/OLB. Hybrids like Moss are tough to project in mock drafts because every team that has a 3-4 look can reach on them.
26. Philadelphia Eagles - Michael Griffin S Texas. The Eagles will definitely take a defensive back, I'll say they go with one who can play special teams.
27. New Orleans Saints - Justin Harrell DT Tennessee. Cornerback was their biggest need, but they just signed Jason David to a big offer sheet.
28. New England Patriots - David Harris ILB Michigan. PFT says mark it down.
29. Baltimore Ravens - Ben Grubbs G Auburn. Dwayne Bowe, Ryan Kalil, and Justin Blalock are the other options here.
30. San Diego Chargers - Dwayne Bowe WR LSU. Comes down to Bowe versus Jarrett and they take they guy with the measurables.
31. Chicago Bears - Jon Beason OLB Miami. OLB is a need even if they get Briggs signed.
32. Indianapolis Colts - Paul Posluszny OLB Penn State. With Cato June gone they have a big hole, and this guy just looks like a member of the Colts' defense (not a compliment).
Friday, April 27, 2007
My final mock!
1. Oakland Raiders - JaMarcus Russell QB LSU. The pressure is enormous to draft a QB.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers from Detroit Lions, Detroit gets 1st (4th), and 2nd (64th) round picks - Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech. Detroit gets historically little to move down.
3. Cleveland Browns - Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame. The pressure on them to draft to quarterback is also enormous.
4. Detroit Lions - Gaines Adams DE Clemson. Detroit gets the guy they wanted at 2.
5. Arizona Cardinals - Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin. You have to figure this is Arizona's #1 guy; they draft on need more than most.
6. Chicago Bears from Washington Redskins, Redskins receive 31st pick and Lance Briggs - LaRon Landry S LSU. The Bears would be fools not to take this deal.
7. Minnesota Vikings - Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma. Chester Taylor will not last at last years pace
8. Atlanta Falcons - Amobi Okoye DT Louisville. Okoye is the last blue chipper on the board and has a history with Petrino.
9. Miami Dolphins - Levi Brown OT Penn State. If the Dolphins can't get Quinn they'll go with the top O-lineman.
10. Houston Texans - Leon Hall CB Michigan. Corner is their biggest need and it sounds like Hall has held off Revis for the top spot.
11. San Francisco 49ers - Adam Carriker DE Nebraska. Mike Nolan loves to give the 3-4 look, Carriker can play inside in a 4-3 or outside in a 3-4.
12. Buffalo Bills - Patrick Willis ILB Ole Miss. There's a very real chance the Bills go way way off the board here.
13. St. Louis Rams - Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas. At 6'6" 288 lbs you love the size. The Rams are also interested in Ginn.
14. Carolina Panthers - Greg Olsen TE Miami. Huge need for Carolina, seems like a match.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Darrelle Revis CB Pittsburgh. LB is a greater need, but that would be a reach here. Plus I like the idea of keeping Revis local.
16. Green Bay Packers - Marshawn Lynch RB California. The Packers have been linked to Lynch for months. This pick might also be in play for Randy Moss.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Reggie Nelson S Florida. Anthony Spencer, Timmons, or trading down are also possibilities, but they could really use a safety here.
18. Cincinatti Bengals - Lawrence Timmons OLB Florida State. The Bengals will take the best defensive player available, and all their starting LBs from last year are gone.
19. Tennessee Titans - Ted Ginn, Jr WR Ohio State. They need a target for Vick with Drew Bennett gone and a return specialist with Pacman in purgatory.
20. New York Giants - Joe Staley OT Central Michigan. Not a sexy pick but they've desperately needed a LT since Petitgout left.
21. Denver Broncos - Alan Branch DT Michigan. Since Dan Wilkinson nixed a trade here, Denver would be thrilled to land someone even fatter!
22. Dallas Cowboys - Robert Meachem WR Tennessee. He reminds me a little of TO with the ball in his hands, he breaks tackles in a similar manner.
23. Kansas City Chiefs - Aaron Ross CB Texas. I've had them taking a WR, but that's not Carl Peterson's style. Ross can also return kicks with Hall shipped to St. Louis.
24. New England Patriots - Brandon Meriweather S Miami. Both their safeties are coming off of major injuries, the safeties from the U have a good history.
25. New York Jets - Jarvis Moss Florida DE/OLB. Hybrids like Moss are tough to project in mock drafts because every team that has a 3-4 look can reach on them.
26. Philadelphia Eagles - Michael Griffin S Texas. The Eagles will definitely take a defensive back, I'll say they go with one who can play special teams.
27. New Orleans Saints - Justin Harrell DT Tennessee. Cornerback was their biggest need, but they just signed Jason David to a big offer sheet.
28. New England Patriots - David Harris ILB Michigan. PFT says mark it down.
29. Baltimore Ravens - Ben Grubbs G Auburn. Dwayne Bowe, Ryan Kalil, and Justin Blalock are the other options here.
30. San Diego Chargers - Dwayne Bowe WR LSU. Comes down to Bowe versus Jarrett and they take they guy with the measurables.
31. Washington Redskins from Chicago Bears - Anthony Spencer DE Purdue. Redskins still land a pass rusher.
32. Indianapolis Colts - Paul Posluszny OLB Penn State. With Cato June gone they have a big hole, and this guy just looks like a member of the Colts' defense (not a compliment).
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers from Detroit Lions, Detroit gets 1st (4th), and 2nd (64th) round picks - Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech. Detroit gets historically little to move down.
3. Cleveland Browns - Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame. The pressure on them to draft to quarterback is also enormous.
4. Detroit Lions - Gaines Adams DE Clemson. Detroit gets the guy they wanted at 2.
5. Arizona Cardinals - Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin. You have to figure this is Arizona's #1 guy; they draft on need more than most.
6. Chicago Bears from Washington Redskins, Redskins receive 31st pick and Lance Briggs - LaRon Landry S LSU. The Bears would be fools not to take this deal.
7. Minnesota Vikings - Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma. Chester Taylor will not last at last years pace
8. Atlanta Falcons - Amobi Okoye DT Louisville. Okoye is the last blue chipper on the board and has a history with Petrino.
9. Miami Dolphins - Levi Brown OT Penn State. If the Dolphins can't get Quinn they'll go with the top O-lineman.
10. Houston Texans - Leon Hall CB Michigan. Corner is their biggest need and it sounds like Hall has held off Revis for the top spot.
11. San Francisco 49ers - Adam Carriker DE Nebraska. Mike Nolan loves to give the 3-4 look, Carriker can play inside in a 4-3 or outside in a 3-4.
12. Buffalo Bills - Patrick Willis ILB Ole Miss. There's a very real chance the Bills go way way off the board here.
13. St. Louis Rams - Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas. At 6'6" 288 lbs you love the size. The Rams are also interested in Ginn.
14. Carolina Panthers - Greg Olsen TE Miami. Huge need for Carolina, seems like a match.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Darrelle Revis CB Pittsburgh. LB is a greater need, but that would be a reach here. Plus I like the idea of keeping Revis local.
16. Green Bay Packers - Marshawn Lynch RB California. The Packers have been linked to Lynch for months. This pick might also be in play for Randy Moss.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Reggie Nelson S Florida. Anthony Spencer, Timmons, or trading down are also possibilities, but they could really use a safety here.
18. Cincinatti Bengals - Lawrence Timmons OLB Florida State. The Bengals will take the best defensive player available, and all their starting LBs from last year are gone.
19. Tennessee Titans - Ted Ginn, Jr WR Ohio State. They need a target for Vick with Drew Bennett gone and a return specialist with Pacman in purgatory.
20. New York Giants - Joe Staley OT Central Michigan. Not a sexy pick but they've desperately needed a LT since Petitgout left.
21. Denver Broncos - Alan Branch DT Michigan. Since Dan Wilkinson nixed a trade here, Denver would be thrilled to land someone even fatter!
22. Dallas Cowboys - Robert Meachem WR Tennessee. He reminds me a little of TO with the ball in his hands, he breaks tackles in a similar manner.
23. Kansas City Chiefs - Aaron Ross CB Texas. I've had them taking a WR, but that's not Carl Peterson's style. Ross can also return kicks with Hall shipped to St. Louis.
24. New England Patriots - Brandon Meriweather S Miami. Both their safeties are coming off of major injuries, the safeties from the U have a good history.
25. New York Jets - Jarvis Moss Florida DE/OLB. Hybrids like Moss are tough to project in mock drafts because every team that has a 3-4 look can reach on them.
26. Philadelphia Eagles - Michael Griffin S Texas. The Eagles will definitely take a defensive back, I'll say they go with one who can play special teams.
27. New Orleans Saints - Justin Harrell DT Tennessee. Cornerback was their biggest need, but they just signed Jason David to a big offer sheet.
28. New England Patriots - David Harris ILB Michigan. PFT says mark it down.
29. Baltimore Ravens - Ben Grubbs G Auburn. Dwayne Bowe, Ryan Kalil, and Justin Blalock are the other options here.
30. San Diego Chargers - Dwayne Bowe WR LSU. Comes down to Bowe versus Jarrett and they take they guy with the measurables.
31. Washington Redskins from Chicago Bears - Anthony Spencer DE Purdue. Redskins still land a pass rusher.
32. Indianapolis Colts - Paul Posluszny OLB Penn State. With Cato June gone they have a big hole, and this guy just looks like a member of the Colts' defense (not a compliment).
Myths about the draft
With the draft 25 hours away, it's time to dispel some rumors about it.
Myth: The draft is the best thing ever.
Fact: The Gutenberg Printing Press made it possible to reprint text at a much faster rate and is better than the draft. Birth control, beer, and toilet paper also rank very highly. The draft is only the 14th best thing ever.
Myth: You have to watch all 16 or so hours of the draft this weekend or baby Jesus will cry.
Fact: You can actually get up to use the bathroom or go to the fridge during commercials; Jesus is not without mercy.
Myth: Mel Kiper, Jr's pompadour can deflect bullets.
Fact: In 1997 while scouting Rae Carruth Mel was shot and the bullet was lodged in his hair. It's still there, and is visible when Mel turns to his right toward the dais.
Myth: Mel Kiper, Jr. and Butch Patrick, the actor that played Eddie Munster, are one and the same.
Fact: Mel is actually Joey Butafuoco.
Myth: Detroit Lions GM Matt Millen has pictures of team owner William Clay Ford, Sr. in compromising positions.
Fact: Ford was fatally shot by first round bust Charles Rogers in 2004 and Millen has created the illusion that he is alive from tricks learned from watching Weekend at Bernie's.
Myth: The Redskins have already traded a 4th
round pick next year in return for lifts to make Dan Snyder appear 5'4".
Fact: The Redskins traded that pick for contact lenses for Vinny Cerrato's enormous eyes.
Myth: The draft is the best thing ever.
Fact: The Gutenberg Printing Press made it possible to reprint text at a much faster rate and is better than the draft. Birth control, beer, and toilet paper also rank very highly. The draft is only the 14th best thing ever.
Myth: You have to watch all 16 or so hours of the draft this weekend or baby Jesus will cry.
Fact: You can actually get up to use the bathroom or go to the fridge during commercials; Jesus is not without mercy.Myth: Mel Kiper, Jr's pompadour can deflect bullets.
Fact: In 1997 while scouting Rae Carruth Mel was shot and the bullet was lodged in his hair. It's still there, and is visible when Mel turns to his right toward the dais.
Myth: Mel Kiper, Jr. and Butch Patrick, the actor that played Eddie Munster, are one and the same.
Fact: Mel is actually Joey Butafuoco.Myth: Detroit Lions GM Matt Millen has pictures of team owner William Clay Ford, Sr. in compromising positions.
Fact: Ford was fatally shot by first round bust Charles Rogers in 2004 and Millen has created the illusion that he is alive from tricks learned from watching Weekend at Bernie's.
Myth: The Redskins have already traded a 4th
round pick next year in return for lifts to make Dan Snyder appear 5'4".Fact: The Redskins traded that pick for contact lenses for Vinny Cerrato's enormous eyes.
Thursday, April 26, 2007
44.5 hours to go
1. Oakland Raiders - JaMarcus Russell QB LSU. The pressure is enormous to draft a QB.
2. Atlanta Falcons from Detroit Lions, Detroit gets 1st (8th), and 2 2nds (39th and 44th) - Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech. CJ stays home, if Vick can't put up numbers now he's done as a starter.
3. Cleveland Browns - Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame. The pressure on them to draft to quarterback is also enormous.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Gaines Adams DE Clemson. Rice and Adams on the edge looks good, Kevin Carter moves inside.
5. Arizona Cardinals - Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin. You have to figure this is Arizona's #1 guy; they draft on need more than most.
6. Buffalo Bills from Washington Redskins, Redskins receive 12th and 43rd picks - Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma. They need to do something to excite the fanbase, the Bills were last in the NFL in most attendance categories.
7. Minnesota Vikings - LaRon Landry S LSU. If the first 6 picks unfold like that this is a slam dunk pick.
8. Detroit Lions from Atlanta Falcons - Patrick Willis ILB Ole Miss. Detroit is said to be smitten with Willis and Adams.
9. Miami Dolphins - Levi Brown OT Penn State. If the Dolphins can't get Quinn they'll go with the top O-lineman.
10. Houston Texans - Amobi Okoye DT Louisville. Texans are thrilled to land a blue chipper and 10.
11. San Francisco 49ers - Adam Carriker DE Nebraska. Mike Nolan loves to give the 3-4 look, Carriker can play inside in a 4-3 or outside in a 3-4.
12. Washington Redskins from Buffalo Bills - Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas. At 6'6" 288 lbs you love the size
13. St. Louis Rams - Ted Ginn, Jr WR Ohio State. Could be a smokescreen but I hear the Rams are making goo goo eyes at Ginn.
14. Tennessee Titans from Carolina Panthers, Panthers receive 19th, 80th, and 152nd picks - Marshawn Lynch RB California. Anyone Carolina needs is a reach here, and everyone knows you need to move ahead of 16 for Lynch.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Darrelle Revis CB Pittsburgh. LB is a greater need, but that would be a reach here. Plus I like the idea of keeping Revis local.
16. Green Bay Packers - Greg Olsen TE Miami. Partially out of spite toward Carolina, partially out of need.
17. Dallas Cowboys from Jacksonville Jaguars, Jaguars receive 22nd, 87th, and 159th pick- Leon Hall CB Michigan. With 10 picks the Cowboys have some freedom to move up to draft Ginn, Hall, or Revis if they slide.
18. Cincinatti Bengals - Lawrence Timmons OLB Florida State. The Bengals will take the best defensive player available, and all their starting LBs from last year are gone.
19. Carolina Panthers from Tennessee Titans - Reggie Nelson S Florida. Carolina would be thrilled to trade down and land either Nelson or Olsen.
20. New York Giants - Joe Staley OT Central Michigan. Not a sexy pick but they've desperately needed a LT since Petitgout left.
21. Denver Broncos - Alan Branch DT Michigan. Since Dan Wilkinson nixed a trade here, Denver would be thrilled to land someone even fatter!
22. Jacksonville Jaguars from Dallas Cowboys - Jarvis Moss DE/OLB Miami. Good value for the pass rusher.
23. Kansas City Chiefs - Robert Meachem WR. Tennessee. Some day the chefs will find a receiver.
24. New England Patriots - Brandon Meriweather S Miami. Both their safeties are coming off of major injuries, the safeties from the U have a good history.
25. New York Jets - Aaron Ross CB Texas. Other options here are Anthony Spencer, Moss, or Chris Houston.
26. Philadelphia Eagles - Michael Griffin S Texas. The Eagles will definitely take a defensive back, I'll say they go with one who can play special teams.
27. New Orleans Saints - Justin Harrell DT Tennessee. Cornerback was their biggest need, but they just signed Jason David to a big offer sheet.
28. New England Patriots - David Harris ILB Michigan. PFT says mark it down.
29. Baltimore Ravens - Ben Grubbs G Auburn. Dwayne Bowe, Ryan Kalil, and Justin Blalock are the other options here.
30. San Diego Chargers - Dwayne Bowe WR LSU. Comes down to Bowe versus Jarrett and they take they guy with the measurables.
31. Chicago Bears - Jon Beason OLB Miami. OLB is a need even if they get Briggs signed.
32. Indianapolis Colts - Paul Posluszny OLB Penn State. With Cato June gone they have a big hole, and this guy just looks like a member of the Colts' defense (not a compliment).
2. Atlanta Falcons from Detroit Lions, Detroit gets 1st (8th), and 2 2nds (39th and 44th) - Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech. CJ stays home, if Vick can't put up numbers now he's done as a starter.
3. Cleveland Browns - Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame. The pressure on them to draft to quarterback is also enormous.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Gaines Adams DE Clemson. Rice and Adams on the edge looks good, Kevin Carter moves inside.
5. Arizona Cardinals - Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin. You have to figure this is Arizona's #1 guy; they draft on need more than most.
6. Buffalo Bills from Washington Redskins, Redskins receive 12th and 43rd picks - Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma. They need to do something to excite the fanbase, the Bills were last in the NFL in most attendance categories.
7. Minnesota Vikings - LaRon Landry S LSU. If the first 6 picks unfold like that this is a slam dunk pick.
8. Detroit Lions from Atlanta Falcons - Patrick Willis ILB Ole Miss. Detroit is said to be smitten with Willis and Adams.
9. Miami Dolphins - Levi Brown OT Penn State. If the Dolphins can't get Quinn they'll go with the top O-lineman.
10. Houston Texans - Amobi Okoye DT Louisville. Texans are thrilled to land a blue chipper and 10.
11. San Francisco 49ers - Adam Carriker DE Nebraska. Mike Nolan loves to give the 3-4 look, Carriker can play inside in a 4-3 or outside in a 3-4.
12. Washington Redskins from Buffalo Bills - Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas. At 6'6" 288 lbs you love the size
13. St. Louis Rams - Ted Ginn, Jr WR Ohio State. Could be a smokescreen but I hear the Rams are making goo goo eyes at Ginn.
14. Tennessee Titans from Carolina Panthers, Panthers receive 19th, 80th, and 152nd picks - Marshawn Lynch RB California. Anyone Carolina needs is a reach here, and everyone knows you need to move ahead of 16 for Lynch.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Darrelle Revis CB Pittsburgh. LB is a greater need, but that would be a reach here. Plus I like the idea of keeping Revis local.
16. Green Bay Packers - Greg Olsen TE Miami. Partially out of spite toward Carolina, partially out of need.
17. Dallas Cowboys from Jacksonville Jaguars, Jaguars receive 22nd, 87th, and 159th pick- Leon Hall CB Michigan. With 10 picks the Cowboys have some freedom to move up to draft Ginn, Hall, or Revis if they slide.
18. Cincinatti Bengals - Lawrence Timmons OLB Florida State. The Bengals will take the best defensive player available, and all their starting LBs from last year are gone.
19. Carolina Panthers from Tennessee Titans - Reggie Nelson S Florida. Carolina would be thrilled to trade down and land either Nelson or Olsen.
20. New York Giants - Joe Staley OT Central Michigan. Not a sexy pick but they've desperately needed a LT since Petitgout left.
21. Denver Broncos - Alan Branch DT Michigan. Since Dan Wilkinson nixed a trade here, Denver would be thrilled to land someone even fatter!
22. Jacksonville Jaguars from Dallas Cowboys - Jarvis Moss DE/OLB Miami. Good value for the pass rusher.
23. Kansas City Chiefs - Robert Meachem WR. Tennessee. Some day the chefs will find a receiver.
24. New England Patriots - Brandon Meriweather S Miami. Both their safeties are coming off of major injuries, the safeties from the U have a good history.
25. New York Jets - Aaron Ross CB Texas. Other options here are Anthony Spencer, Moss, or Chris Houston.
26. Philadelphia Eagles - Michael Griffin S Texas. The Eagles will definitely take a defensive back, I'll say they go with one who can play special teams.
27. New Orleans Saints - Justin Harrell DT Tennessee. Cornerback was their biggest need, but they just signed Jason David to a big offer sheet.
28. New England Patriots - David Harris ILB Michigan. PFT says mark it down.
29. Baltimore Ravens - Ben Grubbs G Auburn. Dwayne Bowe, Ryan Kalil, and Justin Blalock are the other options here.
30. San Diego Chargers - Dwayne Bowe WR LSU. Comes down to Bowe versus Jarrett and they take they guy with the measurables.
31. Chicago Bears - Jon Beason OLB Miami. OLB is a need even if they get Briggs signed.
32. Indianapolis Colts - Paul Posluszny OLB Penn State. With Cato June gone they have a big hole, and this guy just looks like a member of the Colts' defense (not a compliment).
You knew he had sores on his cock
I've defended Michael Vick before. I defended him over the years when he regressed as a passer. I defended him during the Ron Mexico episode. I defended him when he gave the middle finger to a fan sitting next to a kid with a Vick jersey. I defended him when he was caught with Aquafina with a prize inside. And I defended him when he gave $10,000 to Virginia Tech last week, which amounted to less than 0.1% of his salary. But this has gotten ridiculous. Vick's Surry County, Virginia mansion was raided by the police due to alleged cock and dog fighting on his property.
Every few months it's something new with Vick. Atlanta owner Arthur Blank can't feel good about this case looming after the Falcons traded Matt Schaub and troublemakers Chris Henry and Pacman Jones were suspended a combined 24 games. The Schaub ship has sailed, and Vick's current contract makes him the second highest paid QB in the NFL after Manning, so the Falcons are married to Senor Mexico for better or for worse. If Vick isn't insulated from these charges it may be time to start talking divorce.
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
The Butcher's Bill
Since Dan Snyder took over the Redskins they've been willing to waste mid round picks like Alec Baldwin wastes his breath on his daughter. Here is a list of every trade the Redskins have made since Norv Turner was fired. Notice that the Redskins have already traded a 2008 4th round pick for T.J. Duckett.
| Redskins receive | Redskins trade |
| Bears 2007 6th round pick | Adam Archuleta |
| Jets 2006 2nd round pick (Rocky McIntosh, 35th pick) | 2006 2nd (Anthony Fasano, 53rd) and 6th (Drew Coleman, 189th) round picks, 2007 2nd round pick |
| T.J. Duckett | 2007 3rd round pick, 2008 4th round pick |
| Jets 2006 6th round pick (Reed Doughty, 173rd) | Patrick Ramsey |
| Panthers 2006 6th round pick (Kedric Golston, 196th) | Rod Gardner |
| Brandon Lloyd | 2006 3rd round pick, 2007 4th round pick |
| Vikings 2005 4th (Manual White, 120th) and 5th (Robert McCune, 154th) round picks | 2005 4th round pick (Ciatrick Fason, 112th) |
| Broncos 2005 1st round pick (Jason Campbell) | 2005 3rd round pick (Karl Paymeh, 76th), 2006 1st (Manny Lawson, 22nd) and 4th (Brandon Marshall, 119th) round picks (Broncos traded up for Jay Cutler) |
| James Thrash | 2005 5th round pick (Trent Cole, 146th) |
| Santana Moss | Laveraneous Coles |
| Bears 2004 6th round pick (Jim Molinaro, 180th) | Bryan Johnson |
| Martin Chase | 2004 7th round pick (Mark Jones, 206th) |
| Saints 2004 3rd (Chris Cooley, 81st) and Vikings 5th (Mark Wilson, 151st) round picks | 2004 5th (Mike Karney 156th) and 2005 2nd (Josh Bullocks, 40th) round picks |
| Clinton Portis | Champ Bailey, 2004 2nd round pick (Tatum Bell, 41st) |
| Mark Brunell | 2004 3rd round pick (Donnell Washington, 72nd) |
| Lionel Dalton | 2004 6th round pick (Triandos Luke 171st) |
| Brendan Stai | 2003 5th round pick (James Davis, 144th) |
| New England 2003 3rd (Derrick Dockery, 81st) and 5th (Derek Pagal, 140th) | 2003 3rd (Seth Wand, 7th) and 2004 4th (Isaac Sopoaga, 104th) round picks |
| Dolphins 2003 7th round pick (Gibran Hamdan, 232nd) | Sage Rosenfels |
| Laveraneous Coles | 2003 1st round pick (Ty Warren, 13th) |
| Trung Canidate | 2003 4th round pick (DuJuan Groce, 107th) and David Loverne |
| Chad Morton | 2003 5th round pick (Derek Pagal, 140th) |
| Matt Bowen | 2003 6th round pick (Jeremy Bridges, 185th) |
| Jermaine Haley | 2003 7th round pick (Walter Young, 226th) |
| Jets 2002 5th round pick (Robert Royal, 160th), David Loverne | 2002 5th round pick (Jonathan Goodwin, 154th) |
| Jacksonville 3rd round pick (Rashard Bauman, 79th) | Oakland 2002 3rd (Akin Ayodele, 89th) and Redskins 4th (Chris Luzar, 118th) round picks |
| Baltimore 2nd (Ladell Betts, 56th), 3rd (Cliff Russell, 87th), and 5th (Andre Lott, 159th) round picks | 2002 2nd (Anthony Weaver, 52nd) and New England 3rd (Dorsett Davis, 96th) round picks |
| New England 1st (Patrick Ramsey, 32nd), 3rd (Dorsett Davis, 96th), and 7th (Greg Scott, 234th) round picks | Oakland 2002 1st round pick (Daniel Graham, 21st) |
| Oakland 2002 1st (Daniel Graham, 21st) and 3rd (Akin Ayodele, 89th) round picks | 2002 1st round pick (Philip Buchanon, 17th) |
| Marty Schottenheimer | 2001 3rd (Marvin "Snoop" Minnis, 77th) and 2002 3rd round pick (Lamar Gordon, 84th) |
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
After 4 months, the draft picture is starting to emerge
I'm getting lonelier and lonelier predicting the Raiders pick Calvin Johnson, but Peter King is also getting lonelier predicting Detroit doesn't trade down. This mock draft has some stunning trades, but it's based on what I'm hearing.
1. Oakland Raiders - JaMarcus Russell QB LSU. The pressure is enormous to draft a QB.
2. Denver Broncos from Detroit Lions, Detroit gets 1st (21st), 2nd (56th), and 2 3rd round picks (70th and 86th), 2008 1st and 3rd rounder - Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech. Teams with 1st or 2nd year QBs inevitably overvalue rookie WRs.
3. Cleveland Browns - Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame. The pressure on them to draft to quarterback is also enormous.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma. I know what you're thinking: didn't Tampa just draft Cadillac Williams in the top 5? Well he's been run into the ground the last 2 years and AP is clearly the best player on the board.
5. Arizona Cardinals - Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin. You have to figure this is Arizona's #1 guy; they draft on need more than most.
6. Washington Redskins - Gaines Adams DE Clemson. Fills the hole at pass rusher.
7. Minnesota Vikings - LaRon Landry S LSU. If the first 6 picks unfold like that this is a slam dunk pick.
8. Atlanta Falcons - Amobi Okoye DT Louisville. Okoye is the last blue chipper on the board and has a history with Petrino.
9. Miami Dolphins - Levi Brown OT Penn State. If the Dolphins can't get Quinn they'll go with the top O-lineman.
10. Houston Texans - Darrelle Revis CB Pittsburgh. Corner is their biggest need and it's sounding more and more like Revis comes off the board before Hall.
11. San Francisco 49ers - Patrick Willis ILB Ole Miss. Slam dunk pick. As a coach/coordinator Mike Nolan has had Ray Lewis and Derek Smith at MLB as starters and no one else. Think he wants an upgrade?
12. Buffalo Bills - Leon Hall CB Michigan. It was between him and Lynch, but I think character issues make Lynch slide a little.
13. St. Louis Rams - Ted Ginn, Jr WR Ohio State. Could be a smokescreen but I hear the Rams are making goo goo eyes at Ginn.
14. Carolina Panthers - Greg Olsen TE Miami. Huge need for Carolina, seems like a match.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Adam Carriker DE Nebraska. They're talking about moving to a 4-3, Carriker can play inside in a 4-3 or outside in a 3-4.
16. Green Bay Packers - Marshawn Lynch RB California. The Packers have been linked to Lynch for months. This pick might also be in play for Randy Moss.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas. At 6'6" 288 lbs you love the size.
18. Cincinatti Bengals - Lawrence Timmons OLB Florida State. The Bengals will take the best defensive player available, and all their starting LBs from last year are gone.
19. San Diego Chargers from Tennessee Titans for Michael Turner - Robert Meachem WR Tennessee. I see the Titans trading their 1st for the Chargers 1st and Michael Turner, and the Chargers need a difference maker at WR.
20. New York Giants - Joe Staley OT Central Michigan. Not a sexy pick but they've desperately needed a LT since Petitgout left.
21. Detroit Lions from Denver Broncos - Aaron Ross CB Texas. They got rid of Bly because he didn't fit the Cover 2, Ross would make a lot of sense here.
22. Dallas Cowboys - Alan Branch DT Michigan. Jerry Jones will end someone's slide here.
23. Kansas City Chiefs - Dwayne Bowe WR LSU. Some day the chefs will find a receiver.
24. New England Patriots - Brandon Meriweather S Miami. Both their safeties are coming off of major injuries.
25. New York Jets - Jarvis Moss DE/OLB Miami. Other options here are Anthony Spencer (Moss is a better fit for the 3-4), Ross, or Chris Houston.
26. Philadelphia Eagles - Michael Griffin S Texas. The Eagles will definitely take a defensive back, I'll say they go with one who can play special teams.
27. New Orleans Saints - Justin Harrell DT Tennessee. Cornerback was their biggest need, but they just signed Jason David to a big offer sheet.
28. New England Patriots - David Harris ILB Michigan. PFT says mark it down.
29. Detroit Lions from Baltimore Ravens, Ravens receive 34th and 101st picks - John Beck QB BYU. I'm going to go out on a huge limb here, but mark my words: between Oakland, Cleveland, Detroit, and Miami, someone is going to make a move to reach for the third quarterback taken.
30. Tennessee Titans from San Diego Chargers - Dwayne Jarrett WR USC. Teams like the Titans always draft WRs in the first round, and I love reuniting these PTPers from the 2006 Rose Bowl.
31. Chicago Bears - Jon Beason OLB Miami. OLB is a need even if they get Briggs signed.
32. Indianapolis Colts - Paul Posluszny OLB Penn State. With Cato June gone they have a big hole, and this guy just looks like a member of the Colts' defense (not a compliment).
1. Oakland Raiders - JaMarcus Russell QB LSU. The pressure is enormous to draft a QB.
2. Denver Broncos from Detroit Lions, Detroit gets 1st (21st), 2nd (56th), and 2 3rd round picks (70th and 86th), 2008 1st and 3rd rounder - Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech. Teams with 1st or 2nd year QBs inevitably overvalue rookie WRs.
3. Cleveland Browns - Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame. The pressure on them to draft to quarterback is also enormous.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma. I know what you're thinking: didn't Tampa just draft Cadillac Williams in the top 5? Well he's been run into the ground the last 2 years and AP is clearly the best player on the board.
5. Arizona Cardinals - Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin. You have to figure this is Arizona's #1 guy; they draft on need more than most.
6. Washington Redskins - Gaines Adams DE Clemson. Fills the hole at pass rusher.
7. Minnesota Vikings - LaRon Landry S LSU. If the first 6 picks unfold like that this is a slam dunk pick.
8. Atlanta Falcons - Amobi Okoye DT Louisville. Okoye is the last blue chipper on the board and has a history with Petrino.
9. Miami Dolphins - Levi Brown OT Penn State. If the Dolphins can't get Quinn they'll go with the top O-lineman.
10. Houston Texans - Darrelle Revis CB Pittsburgh. Corner is their biggest need and it's sounding more and more like Revis comes off the board before Hall.
11. San Francisco 49ers - Patrick Willis ILB Ole Miss. Slam dunk pick. As a coach/coordinator Mike Nolan has had Ray Lewis and Derek Smith at MLB as starters and no one else. Think he wants an upgrade?
12. Buffalo Bills - Leon Hall CB Michigan. It was between him and Lynch, but I think character issues make Lynch slide a little.
13. St. Louis Rams - Ted Ginn, Jr WR Ohio State. Could be a smokescreen but I hear the Rams are making goo goo eyes at Ginn.
14. Carolina Panthers - Greg Olsen TE Miami. Huge need for Carolina, seems like a match.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Adam Carriker DE Nebraska. They're talking about moving to a 4-3, Carriker can play inside in a 4-3 or outside in a 3-4.
16. Green Bay Packers - Marshawn Lynch RB California. The Packers have been linked to Lynch for months. This pick might also be in play for Randy Moss.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas. At 6'6" 288 lbs you love the size.
18. Cincinatti Bengals - Lawrence Timmons OLB Florida State. The Bengals will take the best defensive player available, and all their starting LBs from last year are gone.
19. San Diego Chargers from Tennessee Titans for Michael Turner - Robert Meachem WR Tennessee. I see the Titans trading their 1st for the Chargers 1st and Michael Turner, and the Chargers need a difference maker at WR.
20. New York Giants - Joe Staley OT Central Michigan. Not a sexy pick but they've desperately needed a LT since Petitgout left.
21. Detroit Lions from Denver Broncos - Aaron Ross CB Texas. They got rid of Bly because he didn't fit the Cover 2, Ross would make a lot of sense here.
22. Dallas Cowboys - Alan Branch DT Michigan. Jerry Jones will end someone's slide here.
23. Kansas City Chiefs - Dwayne Bowe WR LSU. Some day the chefs will find a receiver.
24. New England Patriots - Brandon Meriweather S Miami. Both their safeties are coming off of major injuries.
25. New York Jets - Jarvis Moss DE/OLB Miami. Other options here are Anthony Spencer (Moss is a better fit for the 3-4), Ross, or Chris Houston.
26. Philadelphia Eagles - Michael Griffin S Texas. The Eagles will definitely take a defensive back, I'll say they go with one who can play special teams.
27. New Orleans Saints - Justin Harrell DT Tennessee. Cornerback was their biggest need, but they just signed Jason David to a big offer sheet.
28. New England Patriots - David Harris ILB Michigan. PFT says mark it down.
29. Detroit Lions from Baltimore Ravens, Ravens receive 34th and 101st picks - John Beck QB BYU. I'm going to go out on a huge limb here, but mark my words: between Oakland, Cleveland, Detroit, and Miami, someone is going to make a move to reach for the third quarterback taken.
30. Tennessee Titans from San Diego Chargers - Dwayne Jarrett WR USC. Teams like the Titans always draft WRs in the first round, and I love reuniting these PTPers from the 2006 Rose Bowl.
31. Chicago Bears - Jon Beason OLB Miami. OLB is a need even if they get Briggs signed.
32. Indianapolis Colts - Paul Posluszny OLB Penn State. With Cato June gone they have a big hole, and this guy just looks like a member of the Colts' defense (not a compliment).
Monday, April 23, 2007
I'm a Joker, I'm a Brokeback Smoker
It appears this is the first pic of Heath Ledger in Joker makeup for the 2008 follow up to Batman Begins, The Dark Knight. Some observations: he appears to have six fingers on his right hand, and scars on his cheeks at the edges of his mouth. I don't know where they are going with the six fingers, but I'm not surprised about the scars. The word was the director was going for a more realistic depiction of Gotham, like the Ra's al Ghul comes back from the dead with "parlor tricks" as opposed to the Lazarus Pit in the comic. So maybe the scars contribute to his omnipresent smile. It's be hard to come up with a realistic premise for the makeup, though.
In the comic, the Joker was originally the Red Hood, either a continuous or rotating member of a group that committed robberies depending on the source, and he fell into a vat of chemicals. In The Killing Joke, pretty much the definitive Joker origin story, a nameless comedian is recruited to play the part of the Red Hood in a gang, the idea being victims remember the Red Hood but not the members of the gang, and if he's caught, they can get another Red Hood. Batman knocks this Red Hood into a vat of chemicals and he comes out looking like a deranged clown.
Mock. Ing. Bird. Ing.
1. Oakland Raiders - Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech. I would assume the Raiders would get him signed before the draft, but these are the Raiders we're talking about.
2. Detroit Lions - Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin. Thomas or Adams, which way is it going to go? I just don't see them being able to trade down.
3. Cleveland Browns - JaMarcus Russell QB LSU. Charlie Weiss tries to sell Romeo Crennel on Quinn, but Phil Savage has an Alabama connection to Russell.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma. I know what you're thinking: didn't Tampa just draft Cadillac Williams in the top 5? Well he's been run into the ground the last 2 years and AP is clearly the best player on the board.
5. Arizona Cardinals - Gaines Adams DE Clemson. Best defensive player in the draft, the Cardinals need a pass rusher to close out games.
6. Miami Dolphins from Washington Redskins, Skins receive 9th and 60th picks - Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame. If Miami makes this trade, the trade value of Trent Green plummets, so it's worth it for Miami to add a QB on the first day.
7. Minnesota Vikings - LaRon Landry S LSU. If the first 6 picks unfold like that this is a slam dunk pick.
8. Atlanta Falcons - Amobi Okoye DT Louisville. Okoye is the last blue chipper on the board and has a history with Petrino.
9. Washington Redskins from Miami Dolphins - Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas. At 6'6" 288 lbs you love the size.
10. Houston Texans - Darrelle Revis CB Pittsburgh. Corner is their biggest need and it's sounding more and more like Revis comes off the board before Hall.
11. San Francisco 49ers - Patrick Willis ILB Ole Miss. Slam dunk pick. As a coach/coordinator Mike Nolan has had Ray Lewis and Derek Smith at MLB as starters and no one else. Think he wants an upgrade?
12. Buffalo Bills - Leon Hall CB Michigan. It was between him and Lynch, but I think character issues make Lynch slide a little.
13. St. Louis Rams - Ted Ginn, Jr WR Ohio State. Could be a smokescreen but I hear the Rams are making goo goo eyes at Ginn.
14. Carolina Panthers - Greg Olsen TE Miami. Huge need for Carolina, seems like a match.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Adam Carriker DE Nebraska. They're talking about moving to a 4-3, Carriker can play inside in a 4-3 or outside in a 3-4.
16. Green Bay Packers - Marshawn Lynch RB California. The Packers have been linked to Lynch for months. This pick might also be in play for Randy Moss.
17. New York Giants from Jacksonville Jaguars, Giants receive 20th and 116th picks - Lawrence Timmons OLB Florida State. They have a desperate need at OLB and can guarantee they add the best one in the draft by trading a 4th.
18. Cincinatti Bengals - Alan Branch DT Michigan. If the Bengals can't draft a guy with character questions, they'll take a guy with injury questions.
19. San Diego Chargers from Tennessee Titans for Michael Turner - Robert Meachem WR Tennessee. I see the Titans trading their 1st for the Chargers 1st and Michael Turner, and the Chargers need a difference maker at WR.
20. Jacksonvile Jaguars from New York Giants - Reggie Nelson S Florida. I'd have the Jags taking him at 17 so it would be a great move to trade down.
21. Denver Broncos - Joe Staley OT Central Michigan. Denver values quickness along the O-line and have a hole since they dealt Foster in the Bly package.
22. Dallas Cowboys - Levi Brown OT Penn State. Jerry Jones ends Brown's slide.
23. Kansas City Chiefs - Dwayne Bowe WR LSU. Some day the chefs will find a receiver.
24. New England Patriots - Brandon Meriweather S Miami. Both their safeties are coming off of major injuries.
25. New York Jets - Aaron Ross CB Texas. There is a greater that 50% chance the Jets take a corner here, and Ross is the consensus #3 CB in the draft.
26. Philadelphia Eagles - Michael Griffin S Texas. The Eagles will definitely take a defensive back, I'll say they go with one who can play special teams.
27. New Orleans Saints - Justin Harrell DT Tennessee. Cornerback was their biggest need, but they just signed Jason David to a big offer sheet.
28. New England Patriots - David Harris ILB Michigan. PFT says mark it down.
29. Baltimore Ravens - Jarvis Moss Florida DE/OLB. Ozzie Newsome always takes the best player available and this is clearly the best player available.
30. Tennessee Titans from San Diego Chargers - Dwayne Jarrett WR USC. Teams like the Titans always draft WRs in the first round, and I love reuniting these PTPers from the 2006 Rose Bowl.
31. Chicago Bears - Jon Beason OLB Miami. OLB is a need even if they get Briggs signed.
32. Indianapolis Colts - Paul Posluszny OLB Penn State. With Cato June gone they have a big hole, and this guy just looks like a member of the Colts' defense (not a compliment).
2. Detroit Lions - Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin. Thomas or Adams, which way is it going to go? I just don't see them being able to trade down.
3. Cleveland Browns - JaMarcus Russell QB LSU. Charlie Weiss tries to sell Romeo Crennel on Quinn, but Phil Savage has an Alabama connection to Russell.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma. I know what you're thinking: didn't Tampa just draft Cadillac Williams in the top 5? Well he's been run into the ground the last 2 years and AP is clearly the best player on the board.
5. Arizona Cardinals - Gaines Adams DE Clemson. Best defensive player in the draft, the Cardinals need a pass rusher to close out games.
6. Miami Dolphins from Washington Redskins, Skins receive 9th and 60th picks - Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame. If Miami makes this trade, the trade value of Trent Green plummets, so it's worth it for Miami to add a QB on the first day.
7. Minnesota Vikings - LaRon Landry S LSU. If the first 6 picks unfold like that this is a slam dunk pick.
8. Atlanta Falcons - Amobi Okoye DT Louisville. Okoye is the last blue chipper on the board and has a history with Petrino.
9. Washington Redskins from Miami Dolphins - Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas. At 6'6" 288 lbs you love the size.
10. Houston Texans - Darrelle Revis CB Pittsburgh. Corner is their biggest need and it's sounding more and more like Revis comes off the board before Hall.
11. San Francisco 49ers - Patrick Willis ILB Ole Miss. Slam dunk pick. As a coach/coordinator Mike Nolan has had Ray Lewis and Derek Smith at MLB as starters and no one else. Think he wants an upgrade?
12. Buffalo Bills - Leon Hall CB Michigan. It was between him and Lynch, but I think character issues make Lynch slide a little.
13. St. Louis Rams - Ted Ginn, Jr WR Ohio State. Could be a smokescreen but I hear the Rams are making goo goo eyes at Ginn.
14. Carolina Panthers - Greg Olsen TE Miami. Huge need for Carolina, seems like a match.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Adam Carriker DE Nebraska. They're talking about moving to a 4-3, Carriker can play inside in a 4-3 or outside in a 3-4.
16. Green Bay Packers - Marshawn Lynch RB California. The Packers have been linked to Lynch for months. This pick might also be in play for Randy Moss.
17. New York Giants from Jacksonville Jaguars, Giants receive 20th and 116th picks - Lawrence Timmons OLB Florida State. They have a desperate need at OLB and can guarantee they add the best one in the draft by trading a 4th.
18. Cincinatti Bengals - Alan Branch DT Michigan. If the Bengals can't draft a guy with character questions, they'll take a guy with injury questions.
19. San Diego Chargers from Tennessee Titans for Michael Turner - Robert Meachem WR Tennessee. I see the Titans trading their 1st for the Chargers 1st and Michael Turner, and the Chargers need a difference maker at WR.
20. Jacksonvile Jaguars from New York Giants - Reggie Nelson S Florida. I'd have the Jags taking him at 17 so it would be a great move to trade down.
21. Denver Broncos - Joe Staley OT Central Michigan. Denver values quickness along the O-line and have a hole since they dealt Foster in the Bly package.
22. Dallas Cowboys - Levi Brown OT Penn State. Jerry Jones ends Brown's slide.
23. Kansas City Chiefs - Dwayne Bowe WR LSU. Some day the chefs will find a receiver.
24. New England Patriots - Brandon Meriweather S Miami. Both their safeties are coming off of major injuries.
25. New York Jets - Aaron Ross CB Texas. There is a greater that 50% chance the Jets take a corner here, and Ross is the consensus #3 CB in the draft.
26. Philadelphia Eagles - Michael Griffin S Texas. The Eagles will definitely take a defensive back, I'll say they go with one who can play special teams.
27. New Orleans Saints - Justin Harrell DT Tennessee. Cornerback was their biggest need, but they just signed Jason David to a big offer sheet.
28. New England Patriots - David Harris ILB Michigan. PFT says mark it down.
29. Baltimore Ravens - Jarvis Moss Florida DE/OLB. Ozzie Newsome always takes the best player available and this is clearly the best player available.
30. Tennessee Titans from San Diego Chargers - Dwayne Jarrett WR USC. Teams like the Titans always draft WRs in the first round, and I love reuniting these PTPers from the 2006 Rose Bowl.
31. Chicago Bears - Jon Beason OLB Miami. OLB is a need even if they get Briggs signed.
32. Indianapolis Colts - Paul Posluszny OLB Penn State. With Cato June gone they have a big hole, and this guy just looks like a member of the Colts' defense (not a compliment).
Sunday, April 22, 2007
Houston we have a problem
Looking back on the 2006 NFL Draft, by every measurement a recurring theme emerges: Houston fraked up. Only the production of DeMeco Ryans from the second round takes them out of the historically bad group photo. Based on what we know now, Vince Young clearly should have been the number 1 pick. Vince Young is no sure thing and at times last year I was sure I was watching Willie Beamon, but the Titans were a force down the stretch last year, so if you could roll the dice with VY you probably would. But since Houston took Mario Williams, they exercised an $8.5 million option with David Carr, who they cut, and then traded the equivalent of a mid first for Matt Schaub.
With the second pick I'd take Marcus McNeil, who dropped to San Diego at the 50th pick. He dominated this year paving the way for LT ridiculous season, Pro Bowl left tackles are simply not available by trade or through free agency, so San Diego has to be picturing him manning the line for the next decade. Houston decides not to trade down with the Jets last year, maybe with the extra picks they retool their line with a Marcus McNeil or Nick Mangold to go along with the guy they drafted any way, because no one in the top three was taking Mario Williams.
It's hard to say who would be the third pick between Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, and Jay Cutler, but the top defensive pick would be Haloti Ngata if the team ran a 4-3, or Kamerion Wimbley if the team ran a 3-4. Admittedly I've seen more of Ngata than I've seen of the rest of the rookie crop, but his importance comes out in the stats. The Ravens run defense improved from 9th in the NFL in 2005 to 2nd in 2006, and the run stuffing DT was huge reason why. Wimbley had 11 sacks last year, but that doesn't tell the whole story, because he showed the ability to drop into coverage, and defend the run with 8.5 tackles for loss.
The defensive players who were drafted ahead of those two are Williams, LBs AJ Hawk and Ernie Sims, who both disappeared in traffic at times last year, and safeties Michael Huff and Donte Whitner, who were drafted during an idiotic run on safeties. Rookie of the year DeMeco Ryans could be the third pick among defensive players, but his high tackle total could be the product of a defensive line weak against the run. That defensive line is of course led by Mario Williams.
With the second pick I'd take Marcus McNeil, who dropped to San Diego at the 50th pick. He dominated this year paving the way for LT ridiculous season, Pro Bowl left tackles are simply not available by trade or through free agency, so San Diego has to be picturing him manning the line for the next decade. Houston decides not to trade down with the Jets last year, maybe with the extra picks they retool their line with a Marcus McNeil or Nick Mangold to go along with the guy they drafted any way, because no one in the top three was taking Mario Williams.
It's hard to say who would be the third pick between Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, and Jay Cutler, but the top defensive pick would be Haloti Ngata if the team ran a 4-3, or Kamerion Wimbley if the team ran a 3-4. Admittedly I've seen more of Ngata than I've seen of the rest of the rookie crop, but his importance comes out in the stats. The Ravens run defense improved from 9th in the NFL in 2005 to 2nd in 2006, and the run stuffing DT was huge reason why. Wimbley had 11 sacks last year, but that doesn't tell the whole story, because he showed the ability to drop into coverage, and defend the run with 8.5 tackles for loss.
The defensive players who were drafted ahead of those two are Williams, LBs AJ Hawk and Ernie Sims, who both disappeared in traffic at times last year, and safeties Michael Huff and Donte Whitner, who were drafted during an idiotic run on safeties. Rookie of the year DeMeco Ryans could be the third pick among defensive players, but his high tackle total could be the product of a defensive line weak against the run. That defensive line is of course led by Mario Williams.
My Top Ten
Teams draft according to need by varying degrees, but here's my top ten NFL Draft prospects regardless of need.
1. Calvin Johnson WR GT
2. JaMarcus Russell QB LSU
dropoff
3. Gaines Adams DE Clemson
4. Amobi Okoye DT Louisville
5. Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma
6. Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin
7. LaRon Landry S LSU
8. Brady Quinn QB ND
dropoff
9. Patrick Willis ILB Ole Miss
10. Adam Carriker DT/DE Nebraska
dropoff
I wanted to move Willis ahead of Quinn, but as much as I hate the idea of drafting QBs early, in terms of trade value, a QB at a certain point gives the pick more return. Darrelle Revis, Reggie Nelson, and Jarvis Moss will be in the next group on my next set of ratings, but Marshawn Lynch (concerns about maturity) and Levi Brown (athleticism) may be ranked a little lower.
1. Calvin Johnson WR GT
2. JaMarcus Russell QB LSU
dropoff
3. Gaines Adams DE Clemson
4. Amobi Okoye DT Louisville
5. Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma
6. Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin
7. LaRon Landry S LSU
8. Brady Quinn QB ND
dropoff
9. Patrick Willis ILB Ole Miss
10. Adam Carriker DT/DE Nebraska
dropoff
I wanted to move Willis ahead of Quinn, but as much as I hate the idea of drafting QBs early, in terms of trade value, a QB at a certain point gives the pick more return. Darrelle Revis, Reggie Nelson, and Jarvis Moss will be in the next group on my next set of ratings, but Marshawn Lynch (concerns about maturity) and Levi Brown (athleticism) may be ranked a little lower.
Friday, April 20, 2007
This guy will plummet
In a rumor that is destroying defensive tackle Alan Branch's once lofty draft stock, The Sporting News' Dan Pompei first reported on the ocho's Cold Pizza that he has stress fractures in both legs. Kiper has said that he's been sliding because he really hasn't stood out on tape, and if this rumor is true, I doubt he'll go in the top 20. Dallas are Indianapolis stand out as teams that end up with this type of player.
On and on it seems to go...
ARod hit a bottom of the 9th, game winning homer down 1 with runners on second and third after they advanced on a wild pitch yesterday and I couldn't help but think, there is NO WAY that they would have pitched to Barry Bonds circa 2002 in that situation. I obviously think ARod is an incredible player, but it gives me a greater appreciation of how insane Barry The-cream-and-the-clear Bonds was in his prime that began at age 34, because he'd see maybe 5 strikes a series and still hit around .330 with 50 HRs a year.
Kobe's run of 4 straight 50 point games gave me a similar appreciation of Michael Jordan. I watched as much of Kobe as I could from the start of that streak on, and he took low percentage shot after low percentage shot. Shots when no teammates were under the basket, shots with a hand in his face early in a possession. Kobe is a 45% career shooter, Jordan is a 50% career shooter. Kobe's career high scooting percentage is 46.9% in 01-02, Jordan's career low in a full season with the Bulls is 48.2%. I'm not saying Kobe isn't by far the best player in the NBA, I'm saying Michael Jordan was a better scorer.
Kobe's run of 4 straight 50 point games gave me a similar appreciation of Michael Jordan. I watched as much of Kobe as I could from the start of that streak on, and he took low percentage shot after low percentage shot. Shots when no teammates were under the basket, shots with a hand in his face early in a possession. Kobe is a 45% career shooter, Jordan is a 50% career shooter. Kobe's career high scooting percentage is 46.9% in 01-02, Jordan's career low in a full season with the Bulls is 48.2%. I'm not saying Kobe isn't by far the best player in the NBA, I'm saying Michael Jordan was a better scorer.
Cheech & Chong & CJ
Mortal lock top 10 picks Calvin Johnson, Gaines Adams, and Amobi Okoye reportedly admitted to smoking pot at the NFL Scouting Combine. I don't see how GMs can knock these guys down their draft boards as a result. Warren Sapp was thought to be a lock for the top 5 in 1995 when drugs caused a slide to the 12th pick, but it was the unfounded rumors of cocaine use more than the positive tests for marijuana while at Miami that were to blame. John Lucas, a recovering drug addict and alcoholic who has once the #1 pick in the NBA draft out of Maryland, said that when he was coach of the Spurs he would ask potential draft picks if they had ever smoked pot. If they said no, he would assume they were lying and lower them on his draft board. If they said yes, he would ask if they could quit. In any job besides NBA player, NFL player, rapper, or SNL cast member, your chances at landing a job are diminished considerably if you admit to drug use. Does that speak to the lower standards of professional sports leagues (and the incredibly low standards of the one time sketch comedy giant) or of the hypocrisy of the rest of society?
At schools in the power conferences, there is roughly a 50% chance that a student will smoke pot at some point, whether or not they are an athlete, according to the White House and USA Today. So if you assume there is no higher or lower incidence among football players than the general populace, about 127 of the 255 players that will be drafted next weekend will have experimented with marijuana at one time. After watching the Pacman Sportscenter piece where they edit him all the times he says he's learned from this mistake into a 2 minute montage, my thinking is that teams will have an easier time reaching the players who will at least acknowledge a problem.
At schools in the power conferences, there is roughly a 50% chance that a student will smoke pot at some point, whether or not they are an athlete, according to the White House and USA Today. So if you assume there is no higher or lower incidence among football players than the general populace, about 127 of the 255 players that will be drafted next weekend will have experimented with marijuana at one time. After watching the Pacman Sportscenter piece where they edit him all the times he says he's learned from this mistake into a 2 minute montage, my thinking is that teams will have an easier time reaching the players who will at least acknowledge a problem.
Custody is for closers
B is for Basinger. It is also for bitch.
There's a message Alec Baldwin left on his daughter's voice mail floating around the web that was clearly leaked by Kim Basinger. For those a bit older than me that remember her from Never Say Never or 9 1/2 Weeks, are you scared off yet?
"Hey I want to tell you something, okay, and I want to leave a message for you right now, 'cause again it's 10:30, here in New York on a Wednesday, and once again, I've made an ass of myself trying to get to a phone to call you at a specific time. When the time comes for me to make the phone call, I stop whatever I'm doing and I go and I make that phone call - at 11 o'clock in the morning in New York - and if you don't pick up the phone at 10 o'clock at night and you don't even have that goddamn phone turned on. I want you to know something, okay. I-I'm tired of playing this game with you. I'm leaving this message for you to tell you that you have insulted me for the last time. You have insulted me. You don't have the brains or the decency as a human being... I don't give a damn that you're 12 years old or 11 years old, or that you're a child, or that your mother is a thoughtless pain in the ass who doesn't care about what you do as far as I'm concerned; you have humiliated me for the last time with this phone and when I come out there next week, I'm going to fly out there for the day just to straighten you out on this issue. I'm going to let you know just how disappointed in you I am and how angry I am with you that you've done this to me again. You've made me feel like shit and you've made me feel like a fool over and over and over agre- again. And this crap you pull on me with this goddamn phone situation - that you would never dream of doing to your mother - and you do it to me constantly and over and over again. I am going to get on a plane and I am going to come out there for the day and I am going to straighten your ass out when I see you. Do you understand me? I am going to really make sure you get it. Then I'm gonna get on a plane and I'm gonna turn around and I'm gonna come home. So you better be ready Friday the 20th to meet with me. So I'm going to let you know just how I feel, about what a rude little pig you really are. You are a rude, thoughtless little pig. Okay?" *To replay this mess-*
There's a message Alec Baldwin left on his daughter's voice mail floating around the web that was clearly leaked by Kim Basinger. For those a bit older than me that remember her from Never Say Never or 9 1/2 Weeks, are you scared off yet?
"Hey I want to tell you something, okay, and I want to leave a message for you right now, 'cause again it's 10:30, here in New York on a Wednesday, and once again, I've made an ass of myself trying to get to a phone to call you at a specific time. When the time comes for me to make the phone call, I stop whatever I'm doing and I go and I make that phone call - at 11 o'clock in the morning in New York - and if you don't pick up the phone at 10 o'clock at night and you don't even have that goddamn phone turned on. I want you to know something, okay. I-I'm tired of playing this game with you. I'm leaving this message for you to tell you that you have insulted me for the last time. You have insulted me. You don't have the brains or the decency as a human being... I don't give a damn that you're 12 years old or 11 years old, or that you're a child, or that your mother is a thoughtless pain in the ass who doesn't care about what you do as far as I'm concerned; you have humiliated me for the last time with this phone and when I come out there next week, I'm going to fly out there for the day just to straighten you out on this issue. I'm going to let you know just how disappointed in you I am and how angry I am with you that you've done this to me again. You've made me feel like shit and you've made me feel like a fool over and over and over agre- again. And this crap you pull on me with this goddamn phone situation - that you would never dream of doing to your mother - and you do it to me constantly and over and over again. I am going to get on a plane and I am going to come out there for the day and I am going to straighten your ass out when I see you. Do you understand me? I am going to really make sure you get it. Then I'm gonna get on a plane and I'm gonna turn around and I'm gonna come home. So you better be ready Friday the 20th to meet with me. So I'm going to let you know just how I feel, about what a rude little pig you really are. You are a rude, thoughtless little pig. Okay?" *To replay this mess-*
Thursday, April 19, 2007
Next it'll say PROBABLE Stuart Scott (Googly eye)
While watching PTI the news that Arena League Philadelphia Soul QB Tony Graziani would be out 4-6 weeks crawled across the ticker. They may have well have said that his balls itched, because I care about the comfort of Mr. Graziani's nutsack about as much as I care about the Soul's starting lineup. I hate how ESPN tries to cram this down our throats. Though if it wasn't so forced, I'd probably watch it.
Tell me something true
I'm ready to start making guarantees about this year's draft. Some of this stuff is obvious, but you make a mock draft by looking for the lock and going from there.
If the Redskins stay at 6 they're taking either Gaines Adams, Laron Landry, or Amobi Okoye.
The top 2 guys on the Raiders' board are Calvin Johnson and JaMarcus Russell, I'm not sure what order.
Atlanta and Tampa Bay have Calvin Johnson as their number one player.
If San Francisco stands pat they'll go defense.
If the Redskins stay at 6 they're taking either Gaines Adams, Laron Landry, or Amobi Okoye.
The top 2 guys on the Raiders' board are Calvin Johnson and JaMarcus Russell, I'm not sure what order.
Atlanta and Tampa Bay have Calvin Johnson as their number one player.
If San Francisco stands pat they'll go defense.
THE summer storyline
A recurring theme in my conversations around this time of year is me telling my friends to enjoy this while it lasts, because after the NBA Finals, all we have for two months is baseball. Fortunately, the NBA Playoffs last about 10 months, so we've got a while. Come July and August, Daisuke-mania will have slowed down, and the number one story in the sports world will be whether or not Alex Rodriguez will opt out of his contract after this season.
Right now, ARod is on pace for 112 home runs. It's safe to say he won't break 100, but how many does he have to hit to make it worthwhile to pass on the $81 million owed him by the Yankees and Rangers? Is ARod hits .330 with 55 home runs, will the Cubs offer $100 million for 4 years of his services? If he hits 75 homers, will the Orioles drive up the bidding with some Dr. Evil $100 billion offer only for ARod to shockingly fail a physical? If ARod opts out, three teams are affected: the Yankees, who would have lost two out of their three best hitters in two offseasons. The Rangers, who owe over a third of the money due ARod, and are praying he opts out. And the team with which he signs, who get (along with Mike Schmidt) one of the two best infielders since World War II.
And how many home runs does ARod have to hit to be recognized as the unofficial single season home run record holder? Since Roger Maris hit 61 homers in 1961, there have been six seasons of 60 or more home runs by players, all since 1998, all by players associated with performance enhancing drugs. (Three by Sammy Sosa, two by Mark McGwire, one by Barry Bonds) So if ARod hits 62 and becomes the Yankees single season record holder, will fans and the media view him as the unofficial MLB record holder? Or is everyone so numbed to power numbers that it won't register? Or are people conditioned to be dubious of record power numbers, so they will assume ARod was on HGH?
Right now, ARod is on pace for 112 home runs. It's safe to say he won't break 100, but how many does he have to hit to make it worthwhile to pass on the $81 million owed him by the Yankees and Rangers? Is ARod hits .330 with 55 home runs, will the Cubs offer $100 million for 4 years of his services? If he hits 75 homers, will the Orioles drive up the bidding with some Dr. Evil $100 billion offer only for ARod to shockingly fail a physical? If ARod opts out, three teams are affected: the Yankees, who would have lost two out of their three best hitters in two offseasons. The Rangers, who owe over a third of the money due ARod, and are praying he opts out. And the team with which he signs, who get (along with Mike Schmidt) one of the two best infielders since World War II.
And how many home runs does ARod have to hit to be recognized as the unofficial single season home run record holder? Since Roger Maris hit 61 homers in 1961, there have been six seasons of 60 or more home runs by players, all since 1998, all by players associated with performance enhancing drugs. (Three by Sammy Sosa, two by Mark McGwire, one by Barry Bonds) So if ARod hits 62 and becomes the Yankees single season record holder, will fans and the media view him as the unofficial MLB record holder? Or is everyone so numbed to power numbers that it won't register? Or are people conditioned to be dubious of record power numbers, so they will assume ARod was on HGH?
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Hot rumor
Profootballtalk is reporting a Tampa based rumor that the Buccanneers have traded the #4 overall pick and Simeon Rice for the #2 overall pick. Stay tuned.
Added: Profootballtalk is reporting those talks dead, for now. Perhaps because the Redskins and Falcons have entered the bidding.
Says Profootballtalk
The source also says that the Lions are confused by the Redskins' interest in moving up, since Washington doesn't have many other 2007 picks to offer.
Atlanta makes a little more sense, because not only do they have multiple second round picks but an enormous need a receiver. Adding Calvin Johnson might make Atlanta the favorite in the NFC South. Trading up from 10 to 8 in the Matt Schaub deal looks great now that it has been established that there is a drop off after the top 8. (See my mock draft below)
Added: Profootballtalk is reporting those talks dead, for now. Perhaps because the Redskins and Falcons have entered the bidding.
Says Profootballtalk
The source also says that the Lions are confused by the Redskins' interest in moving up, since Washington doesn't have many other 2007 picks to offer.
Atlanta makes a little more sense, because not only do they have multiple second round picks but an enormous need a receiver. Adding Calvin Johnson might make Atlanta the favorite in the NFC South. Trading up from 10 to 8 in the Matt Schaub deal looks great now that it has been established that there is a drop off after the top 8. (See my mock draft below)
Guess it could have been worse
Good thing I don't live in Virginia. Apparently, they have a law where you can only buy one gun a month. That's why the Virginia Tech shooter had to buy the 22 cal from a pawn shop in February, and the 9 mm from a gun store in March. But what if someone who has more than one house decides to arm themselves? What about their second amendment rights? Can they wait until the last day of the month, and then buy a second piece on the 1st? Those fascist bastards!
Some so called expert on MSNBC yesterday suggested that if the students of VA Tech were allowed to carry concealed weapons than this could have been averted. It's legal for other Virginia residents to carry concealed weapons, but it's illegal for students at a public institution to do so. This head on MSNBC condemned that law. One of my college roommates bought a BB gun. Within the week there were pellets in basically every piece of furniture, and when I beat another roommate on a Steve Young hail mary in NFL 2K, he opened fire on me. Not that I think it's a good idea for anyone besides police and military to carry handguns, but it's an exceptionally bad idea for college students to carry them.
On the Tony Kornheiser Show today, a listener suggested that the second amendment be revised to say that you could only bear arms that were available at the time it was written, such as flintlock muskets or pistols, perhaps cannons. Because of course the founding fathers didn't realize that every time a firearm would be discharged in this country at a human being it would be on another American citizen and not some foreign invader.
Some so called expert on MSNBC yesterday suggested that if the students of VA Tech were allowed to carry concealed weapons than this could have been averted. It's legal for other Virginia residents to carry concealed weapons, but it's illegal for students at a public institution to do so. This head on MSNBC condemned that law. One of my college roommates bought a BB gun. Within the week there were pellets in basically every piece of furniture, and when I beat another roommate on a Steve Young hail mary in NFL 2K, he opened fire on me. Not that I think it's a good idea for anyone besides police and military to carry handguns, but it's an exceptionally bad idea for college students to carry them.
On the Tony Kornheiser Show today, a listener suggested that the second amendment be revised to say that you could only bear arms that were available at the time it was written, such as flintlock muskets or pistols, perhaps cannons. Because of course the founding fathers didn't realize that every time a firearm would be discharged in this country at a human being it would be on another American citizen and not some foreign invader.
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Life imitates Seinfeld
NBA commissioner David Stern suspended referee Joey Crawford for the remainder of the regular season and playoffs because he gave Tim Duncan a second technical for laughing while sitting on the bench. Imagining what was going through Crawford and Duncan's heads, I couldn't help but think of the Seinfeld episode where Jerry is thrown off his game onstage because his pilot is in the audience, and then on the return flight the pilot makes Jerry get off the plane because he doesn't want him there.
Monday, April 16, 2007
The NHL is dead
On June 14, 1994 Mark Messier lifted the Stanley Cup in front of a sellout crowd at Madison Square Garden ending a 54-year drought for the New York Rangers. Wayne Gretzky had been traded from Edmonton to Los Angeles in August 1988, and Messier from Edmonton to New York in October 1991, landing the two greatest players from the NHL's greatest team in the two greatest cities in the world's greatest country. The NHL was at an all-time high in popularity. It was big in New York and Los Angeles, it led Sportscenter at points during the regular season, the NHL had expanded from 21 teams to 26 in a three season span, and with Michael Jordan playing baseball, it looked like the NHL was poised to take on the NBA.
Unfortunately, the 1993-94 NHL season was played without a collective bargaining agreement, and on October 1, the owners locked out the players. After 104 days and 468 cancelled regular season games, along with the All Star Game, all momentum from the previous season was lost, especially in the expansion cities of the three previous years (San Jose, Ottawa, Tampa Bay, Anaheim, and Ft. Lauderdale). The Rangers snuck into the playoffs as the 8th seed and lost in the second round.
The Rangers reacted by trading for Luc Robitaille during the summer and Wayne Gretzky during the season, but they still missed the playoffs that year. The following year Gretzky and Messier led the team to the Eastern Conference Finals, but Vancouver lured Messier away in the off-season. Looking for someone to replace Messier, the Rangers signed Colorado Avalanche restricted free agent Joe Sakic, then 28, to a 3-year, $21 million offer sheet in August 1997. At that time, NHL unrestricted free agents had to be 31 or older. Restricted free agents were rarely signed to offer sheets, because teams would match the offers for stars, and for lesser players the draft pick compensation would be prohibitive. Colorado matched the offer, more than doubling Sakic's 96-97 salary for $3.1 million, and raising the level of compensation for NHL stars not yet eligible for free agency to as much as NFL and MLB star free agents were getting, despite the fact that the sum total of TV money the NHL was receiving was less than what the New York Yankees received by themselves.
Paul Kariya was coming off a 99 point third NHL season for the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim and held out for Sakic money. As a Group 2 free agent, Kariya was eligible for neither arbitration nor to sign an offer sheet so Anaheim was only obligated to pay him 10% more than his $2.075 million 96-97 salary. But after a 32 game hold out Anaheim resigned Kariya to a 2-year, $14 million deal in December 1997, and the next round of unrestricted free agents had two new huge contracts at which to point. The Philadelphia Flyers gave Eric Lindros a 2-year, $16 million extension in January 1998. The Avalanche gave Peter Forsberg a 3-year, $30 million deal in April 1999. During the 1996-97 season, Mario Lemieux and Mark Messier were the only 2 players who made more than $5 million. That number grew to 7 the following year, 13 the year after that, and 21 the year after that. Second line center Bobby Holik signed a stunning 5-year, $45 million deal in August 2002 that paid him more yearly than any player in the NFL besides Brett Favre. In 1998 and 1999 the NHL expanded by a team a year, and then added 2 more in 2000.
All this time, the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement that was the product of the 1994 lockout loomed. It was to expire in the fall of 2004, and with player salaries spiraling out of control, along with the existence of salary caps in the NBA and NFL, there was a general consensus in the sports that a salary cap in the NHL was inevitable. A salary cap in sports generally assigns a maximum amount that clubs can spend on payroll, usually in terms of a percentage of the sports revenues. For example, the most recent NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement capped player salaries at 59.5% of gross revenues. According to former U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission chairman Arthur Levitt, NHL player salaries had reached a stunning 76% of gross revenue.
The NHLPA, led by Executive Director Bob Goodenow, balked at a salary cap for months, not including it in proposals until February, which would have been the approximate midpoint of the season and after commissioner Gary Bettman had set a drop-dead date for the 2004-05 season on February 9. A week later, after some rumors of a deal brokered by Gretzky and Lemieux, negotiations fell apart and the season was cancelled.
Prior to the 1994 lockout the NHL was seen as the 4th major sports league, behind the NFL, MLB, and NBA. In the decade that had passed, Tiger Woods had emerged on the PGA Tour, winning his first major in June, 1997, and single handedly drawing huge weekend ratings when he was competing. NASCAR signed their first centralized television contract in December 1999. Before, individual races had individual TV deals; now, viewers would have a better idea what channel would have a race. But most damning, ESPN had replaced NHL games with the World Series of Poker, and poker was killing in the ratings. 1.5 million households tuned in to the World Series of Poker in 2004 on ESPN; by comparison 1.985 million households tuned in to the 2004 All Star Game on NBC, the highest rated game of the season. Also in WSOP's favor: no poker players' union, no chance of a lockout, and since the airing were often prerecorded, no games were affixed the if necessary tag.
July 21, 2005 the NHLPA and owners agreed to a CBA featuring a $39 million cap. Because of the cancelled season, the rookie class for the 2005-06 season included players who would have been rookies the year before. Alexander Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby each had rookie campaigns that compared to the all time greats.
ABC and ESPN had the broadcast rights for NHL prior to the lockout. ABC gave way to NBC with a deal that featured revenue sharing to minimize NBC's risk. The NHL rejected a similar offer from ESPN, giving way to the relatively unknown OLN (Outdoor Life Network), which had featured the Tour de France in 2004, to broadcast the games on cable. OLN is now called the Versus Network.
From 1988-92, the NHL aired on SportsChannel America. For the previous 3 years, the NHL had aired on ESPN; SportsChannel America had offered more money but reached 1/3 of the households that ESPN did at the time. Currently, Versus is available in 59% of cable households in the LA area, up from 49% last year, whereas ESPN is available in 100%. The numbers bore out in the ratings: games 1 and 2 of the 2006 Stanley Cup Final reached 610,836 and 605,501 households, respectively, down from approximately 1 million for ESPN in 2004. 474,298 households tuned in to the 2007 All Star game, a precipitous 76% drop from 2004.
A common rallying cry for NHL faithful is that once HD televisions are more widespread, then hockey will be a more attractive television property since the puck would be easier to follow. However, in HD golf and tennis balls are easier to follow, poker tells are easier to read, and NASCAR wrecks are more spectacular. Unfortunately for the NHL, those sports are on major networks, and although the Versus Network can be difficult to find for cable viewers, Versus HD can be impossible to find, only airing on auxiliary HD channels on cable outlets. So it seems wrong to hail HD as a savior, especially when, according to the Wall Street Journal, only half of the 24 million households with HDTVs are set up to receive HD programming.
I count myself as a hockey fan, so it's hard to watch a quadruple overtime thriller get preempted by an infomercial, which happened during Dallas' game 1 opening round victory over Vancouver. But when I try to objectively gauge the interest level of the American public in the NHL, it comes up lower than pretty much anything that counts itself as a spectator sport.
Unfortunately, the 1993-94 NHL season was played without a collective bargaining agreement, and on October 1, the owners locked out the players. After 104 days and 468 cancelled regular season games, along with the All Star Game, all momentum from the previous season was lost, especially in the expansion cities of the three previous years (San Jose, Ottawa, Tampa Bay, Anaheim, and Ft. Lauderdale). The Rangers snuck into the playoffs as the 8th seed and lost in the second round.
The Rangers reacted by trading for Luc Robitaille during the summer and Wayne Gretzky during the season, but they still missed the playoffs that year. The following year Gretzky and Messier led the team to the Eastern Conference Finals, but Vancouver lured Messier away in the off-season. Looking for someone to replace Messier, the Rangers signed Colorado Avalanche restricted free agent Joe Sakic, then 28, to a 3-year, $21 million offer sheet in August 1997. At that time, NHL unrestricted free agents had to be 31 or older. Restricted free agents were rarely signed to offer sheets, because teams would match the offers for stars, and for lesser players the draft pick compensation would be prohibitive. Colorado matched the offer, more than doubling Sakic's 96-97 salary for $3.1 million, and raising the level of compensation for NHL stars not yet eligible for free agency to as much as NFL and MLB star free agents were getting, despite the fact that the sum total of TV money the NHL was receiving was less than what the New York Yankees received by themselves.
Paul Kariya was coming off a 99 point third NHL season for the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim and held out for Sakic money. As a Group 2 free agent, Kariya was eligible for neither arbitration nor to sign an offer sheet so Anaheim was only obligated to pay him 10% more than his $2.075 million 96-97 salary. But after a 32 game hold out Anaheim resigned Kariya to a 2-year, $14 million deal in December 1997, and the next round of unrestricted free agents had two new huge contracts at which to point. The Philadelphia Flyers gave Eric Lindros a 2-year, $16 million extension in January 1998. The Avalanche gave Peter Forsberg a 3-year, $30 million deal in April 1999. During the 1996-97 season, Mario Lemieux and Mark Messier were the only 2 players who made more than $5 million. That number grew to 7 the following year, 13 the year after that, and 21 the year after that. Second line center Bobby Holik signed a stunning 5-year, $45 million deal in August 2002 that paid him more yearly than any player in the NFL besides Brett Favre. In 1998 and 1999 the NHL expanded by a team a year, and then added 2 more in 2000.
All this time, the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement that was the product of the 1994 lockout loomed. It was to expire in the fall of 2004, and with player salaries spiraling out of control, along with the existence of salary caps in the NBA and NFL, there was a general consensus in the sports that a salary cap in the NHL was inevitable. A salary cap in sports generally assigns a maximum amount that clubs can spend on payroll, usually in terms of a percentage of the sports revenues. For example, the most recent NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement capped player salaries at 59.5% of gross revenues. According to former U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission chairman Arthur Levitt, NHL player salaries had reached a stunning 76% of gross revenue.
The NHLPA, led by Executive Director Bob Goodenow, balked at a salary cap for months, not including it in proposals until February, which would have been the approximate midpoint of the season and after commissioner Gary Bettman had set a drop-dead date for the 2004-05 season on February 9. A week later, after some rumors of a deal brokered by Gretzky and Lemieux, negotiations fell apart and the season was cancelled.
Prior to the 1994 lockout the NHL was seen as the 4th major sports league, behind the NFL, MLB, and NBA. In the decade that had passed, Tiger Woods had emerged on the PGA Tour, winning his first major in June, 1997, and single handedly drawing huge weekend ratings when he was competing. NASCAR signed their first centralized television contract in December 1999. Before, individual races had individual TV deals; now, viewers would have a better idea what channel would have a race. But most damning, ESPN had replaced NHL games with the World Series of Poker, and poker was killing in the ratings. 1.5 million households tuned in to the World Series of Poker in 2004 on ESPN; by comparison 1.985 million households tuned in to the 2004 All Star Game on NBC, the highest rated game of the season. Also in WSOP's favor: no poker players' union, no chance of a lockout, and since the airing were often prerecorded, no games were affixed the if necessary tag.
July 21, 2005 the NHLPA and owners agreed to a CBA featuring a $39 million cap. Because of the cancelled season, the rookie class for the 2005-06 season included players who would have been rookies the year before. Alexander Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby each had rookie campaigns that compared to the all time greats.
ABC and ESPN had the broadcast rights for NHL prior to the lockout. ABC gave way to NBC with a deal that featured revenue sharing to minimize NBC's risk. The NHL rejected a similar offer from ESPN, giving way to the relatively unknown OLN (Outdoor Life Network), which had featured the Tour de France in 2004, to broadcast the games on cable. OLN is now called the Versus Network.
From 1988-92, the NHL aired on SportsChannel America. For the previous 3 years, the NHL had aired on ESPN; SportsChannel America had offered more money but reached 1/3 of the households that ESPN did at the time. Currently, Versus is available in 59% of cable households in the LA area, up from 49% last year, whereas ESPN is available in 100%. The numbers bore out in the ratings: games 1 and 2 of the 2006 Stanley Cup Final reached 610,836 and 605,501 households, respectively, down from approximately 1 million for ESPN in 2004. 474,298 households tuned in to the 2007 All Star game, a precipitous 76% drop from 2004.
A common rallying cry for NHL faithful is that once HD televisions are more widespread, then hockey will be a more attractive television property since the puck would be easier to follow. However, in HD golf and tennis balls are easier to follow, poker tells are easier to read, and NASCAR wrecks are more spectacular. Unfortunately for the NHL, those sports are on major networks, and although the Versus Network can be difficult to find for cable viewers, Versus HD can be impossible to find, only airing on auxiliary HD channels on cable outlets. So it seems wrong to hail HD as a savior, especially when, according to the Wall Street Journal, only half of the 24 million households with HDTVs are set up to receive HD programming.
I count myself as a hockey fan, so it's hard to watch a quadruple overtime thriller get preempted by an infomercial, which happened during Dallas' game 1 opening round victory over Vancouver. But when I try to objectively gauge the interest level of the American public in the NHL, it comes up lower than pretty much anything that counts itself as a spectator sport.
Friday, April 13, 2007
Feeling a draft
1. Oakland Raiders - Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech. They will not have Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson on the same team because asshole is contagious.
2. Detroit Lions - Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin. Matt Millen breathes a sigh of relief when they can't select a WR.
3. Cleveland Browns - JaMarcus Russell QB LSU. Charlie Weiss tries to sell Romeo Crennel on Quinn, but Phil Savage has an Alabama connection to Russell.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma. I know what you're thinking: didn't Tampa just draft Cadillac Williams in the top 5? Well he's been run into the ground the last 2 years and AP is clearly the best player on the board.
5. Arizona Cardinals - Gaines Adams DE Clemson. Best defensive player in the draft, the Cardinals need a pass rusher to close out games.
6. Chicago Bears from Washington Redskins for Lance Briggs - LaRon Landry S LSU. At 2ish April 28, I don't see how the Bears won't jump at the trade.
7. Minnesota Vikings - Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame. They just drafted Tarvaris Jackson, but they another QB is a much bigger need than DT, which is the other logical way to go.
8. Atlanta Falcons - Amobi Okoye DT Louisville. Okoye is the last blue chipper on the board.
9. Miami Dolphins - Levi Brown OT Penn State. Miami has spent a ton on their defense this offseason, time to share the love with the safest offensive player left.
10. Houston Texans - Alan Branch DT Michigan. The other options are DEs Anderson and Carriker, but if they draft a DE, they'd be criticized because of the Mario Williams pick last year, so once again that mistake affects a transaction.
11. San Francisco 49ers - Patrick Willis ILB Ole Miss. Slam dunk pick. As a coach/coordinator Mike Nolan has had Ray Lewis and Derek Smith at MLB. Think he wants an upgrade?
12. Buffalo Bills - Leon Hall CB Michigan. It was between him and Lynch, but I think character issues make Lynch slide a little.
13. St. Louis Rams - Darrelle Revis CB Pittsburgh. They reached a little last year on Hill and they reach a little with Revis over Carriker.
14. Carolina Panthers - Greg Olsen TE Miami. Huge need for Carolina, seems like a match.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Adam Carriker DE Nebraska. They're talking about moving to a 4-3, Carriker can play inside in a 4-3 or outside in a 3-4.
16. Green Bay Packers - Marshawn Lynch RB California. The Packers have been linked to Lynch for months. This pick might also be in play for Randy Moss.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas. James Harris used to love picking weapons for Leftwich to fail to get the ball to, so it's time to address the defense.
18. Cincinatti Bengals - Lawrence Timmons OLB Florida State. The Bengals will take the best defensive player available, and all their starting LBs from last year are gone.
19. San Diego Chargers from Tennessee Titans for Michael Turner - Ted Ginn, Jr WR Ohio State. I see the Titans trading their 1st for the Chargers 1st and Michael Turner, and the Chargers need a difference maker at WR at KR/PR.
20. New York Giants - Joe Staley OT Central Michigan. Not a sexy pick but they desperately need a LT since Petitgout left.
21. Denver Broncos - Reggie Nelson S Florida. Champ Bailey, Dre Bly, John Lynch, and Nelson would be the nastiest secondary in the NFL.
22. Dallas Cowboys - Robert Meachem WR Tennessee. Jarvis Moss is also a possibility, but they need some youth at WR.
23. Kansas City Chiefs - Dwayne Bowe WR LSU. Some day the chefs will find a receiver.
24. New England Patriots - Jon Beason OLB Miami. The Pats don't have any real needs but they lack depth at OLB.
25. New York Jets - Jarvis Moss Florida DE/OLB. Hybrids like Moss are tough to project in mock drafts because every team that has a 3-4 look can reach on them.
26. Philadelphia Eagles - Eric Wright CB UNLV. Workout guy who was productive for Rebels.
27. New Orleans Saints - Aaron Ross CB Texas. Cornerback is by far their biggest need, I guarantee they go corner in the 1st round.
28. New England Patriots - Brandon Meriweather S Miami. The kind of playmaker in the secondary that New England loves.
29. Baltimore Ravens - Ryan Kalil C USC. The Ravens have been hurting at center since Rabach left, if Kalil has as much of an impact as Mangold Newsome will be thrilled.
30. Tennessee Titans from San Diego Chargers - Dwayne Jarrett WR USC. Teams like the Titans always draft WRs in the first round, and I love reuniting these PTPers from the 2006 Rose Bowl.
31. Washington Redskins from Chicago Bears - Ben Grubbs OG Auburn. The Redskins love Auburn players, they have a hole created by Derrick Dockery's departure, I smell a match!
32. Indianapolis Colts - Paul Posluszny OLB Penn State. With Cato June gone they have a big hole, and this guy just looks like a Colt.
2. Detroit Lions - Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin. Matt Millen breathes a sigh of relief when they can't select a WR.
3. Cleveland Browns - JaMarcus Russell QB LSU. Charlie Weiss tries to sell Romeo Crennel on Quinn, but Phil Savage has an Alabama connection to Russell.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma. I know what you're thinking: didn't Tampa just draft Cadillac Williams in the top 5? Well he's been run into the ground the last 2 years and AP is clearly the best player on the board.
5. Arizona Cardinals - Gaines Adams DE Clemson. Best defensive player in the draft, the Cardinals need a pass rusher to close out games.
6. Chicago Bears from Washington Redskins for Lance Briggs - LaRon Landry S LSU. At 2ish April 28, I don't see how the Bears won't jump at the trade.
7. Minnesota Vikings - Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame. They just drafted Tarvaris Jackson, but they another QB is a much bigger need than DT, which is the other logical way to go.
8. Atlanta Falcons - Amobi Okoye DT Louisville. Okoye is the last blue chipper on the board.
9. Miami Dolphins - Levi Brown OT Penn State. Miami has spent a ton on their defense this offseason, time to share the love with the safest offensive player left.
10. Houston Texans - Alan Branch DT Michigan. The other options are DEs Anderson and Carriker, but if they draft a DE, they'd be criticized because of the Mario Williams pick last year, so once again that mistake affects a transaction.
11. San Francisco 49ers - Patrick Willis ILB Ole Miss. Slam dunk pick. As a coach/coordinator Mike Nolan has had Ray Lewis and Derek Smith at MLB. Think he wants an upgrade?
12. Buffalo Bills - Leon Hall CB Michigan. It was between him and Lynch, but I think character issues make Lynch slide a little.
13. St. Louis Rams - Darrelle Revis CB Pittsburgh. They reached a little last year on Hill and they reach a little with Revis over Carriker.
14. Carolina Panthers - Greg Olsen TE Miami. Huge need for Carolina, seems like a match.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Adam Carriker DE Nebraska. They're talking about moving to a 4-3, Carriker can play inside in a 4-3 or outside in a 3-4.
16. Green Bay Packers - Marshawn Lynch RB California. The Packers have been linked to Lynch for months. This pick might also be in play for Randy Moss.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas. James Harris used to love picking weapons for Leftwich to fail to get the ball to, so it's time to address the defense.
18. Cincinatti Bengals - Lawrence Timmons OLB Florida State. The Bengals will take the best defensive player available, and all their starting LBs from last year are gone.
19. San Diego Chargers from Tennessee Titans for Michael Turner - Ted Ginn, Jr WR Ohio State. I see the Titans trading their 1st for the Chargers 1st and Michael Turner, and the Chargers need a difference maker at WR at KR/PR.
20. New York Giants - Joe Staley OT Central Michigan. Not a sexy pick but they desperately need a LT since Petitgout left.
21. Denver Broncos - Reggie Nelson S Florida. Champ Bailey, Dre Bly, John Lynch, and Nelson would be the nastiest secondary in the NFL.
22. Dallas Cowboys - Robert Meachem WR Tennessee. Jarvis Moss is also a possibility, but they need some youth at WR.
23. Kansas City Chiefs - Dwayne Bowe WR LSU. Some day the chefs will find a receiver.
24. New England Patriots - Jon Beason OLB Miami. The Pats don't have any real needs but they lack depth at OLB.
25. New York Jets - Jarvis Moss Florida DE/OLB. Hybrids like Moss are tough to project in mock drafts because every team that has a 3-4 look can reach on them.
26. Philadelphia Eagles - Eric Wright CB UNLV. Workout guy who was productive for Rebels.
27. New Orleans Saints - Aaron Ross CB Texas. Cornerback is by far their biggest need, I guarantee they go corner in the 1st round.
28. New England Patriots - Brandon Meriweather S Miami. The kind of playmaker in the secondary that New England loves.
29. Baltimore Ravens - Ryan Kalil C USC. The Ravens have been hurting at center since Rabach left, if Kalil has as much of an impact as Mangold Newsome will be thrilled.
30. Tennessee Titans from San Diego Chargers - Dwayne Jarrett WR USC. Teams like the Titans always draft WRs in the first round, and I love reuniting these PTPers from the 2006 Rose Bowl.
31. Washington Redskins from Chicago Bears - Ben Grubbs OG Auburn. The Redskins love Auburn players, they have a hole created by Derrick Dockery's departure, I smell a match!
32. Indianapolis Colts - Paul Posluszny OLB Penn State. With Cato June gone they have a big hole, and this guy just looks like a Colt.
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