Thursday, April 19, 2007

THE summer storyline

A recurring theme in my conversations around this time of year is me telling my friends to enjoy this while it lasts, because after the NBA Finals, all we have for two months is baseball. Fortunately, the NBA Playoffs last about 10 months, so we've got a while. Come July and August, Daisuke-mania will have slowed down, and the number one story in the sports world will be whether or not Alex Rodriguez will opt out of his contract after this season.

Right now, ARod is on pace for 112 home runs. It's safe to say he won't break 100, but how many does he have to hit to make it worthwhile to pass on the $81 million owed him by the Yankees and Rangers? Is ARod hits .330 with 55 home runs, will the Cubs offer $100 million for 4 years of his services? If he hits 75 homers, will the Orioles drive up the bidding with some Dr. Evil $100 billion offer only for ARod to shockingly fail a physical? If ARod opts out, three teams are affected: the Yankees, who would have lost two out of their three best hitters in two offseasons. The Rangers, who owe over a third of the money due ARod, and are praying he opts out. And the team with which he signs, who get (along with Mike Schmidt) one of the two best infielders since World War II.

And how many home runs does ARod have to hit to be recognized as the unofficial single season home run record holder? Since Roger Maris hit 61 homers in 1961, there have been six seasons of 60 or more home runs by players, all since 1998, all by players associated with performance enhancing drugs. (Three by Sammy Sosa, two by Mark McGwire, one by Barry Bonds) So if ARod hits 62 and becomes the Yankees single season record holder, will fans and the media view him as the unofficial MLB record holder? Or is everyone so numbed to power numbers that it won't register? Or are people conditioned to be dubious of record power numbers, so they will assume ARod was on HGH?

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