After 4 months, the draft picture is starting to emerge

I'm getting lonelier and lonelier predicting the Raiders pick Calvin Johnson, but Peter King is also getting lonelier predicting Detroit doesn't trade down. This mock draft has some stunning trades, but it's based on what I'm hearing.

1. Oakland Raiders - JaMarcus Russell QB LSU. The pressure is enormous to draft a QB.

2. Denver Broncos from Detroit Lions, Detroit gets 1st (21st), 2nd (56th), and 2 3rd round picks (70th and 86th), 2008 1st and 3rd rounder - Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech. Teams with 1st or 2nd year QBs inevitably overvalue rookie WRs.

3. Cleveland Browns - Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame. The pressure on them to draft to quarterback is also enormous.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma. I know what you're thinking: didn't Tampa just draft Cadillac Williams in the top 5? Well he's been run into the ground the last 2 years and AP is clearly the best player on the board.

5. Arizona Cardinals - Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin. You have to figure this is Arizona's #1 guy; they draft on need more than most.

6. Washington Redskins - Gaines Adams DE Clemson. Fills the hole at pass rusher.

7. Minnesota Vikings - LaRon Landry S LSU. If the first 6 picks unfold like that this is a slam dunk pick.

8. Atlanta Falcons - Amobi Okoye DT Louisville. Okoye is the last blue chipper on the board and has a history with Petrino.

9. Miami Dolphins - Levi Brown OT Penn State. If the Dolphins can't get Quinn they'll go with the top O-lineman.

10. Houston Texans - Darrelle Revis CB Pittsburgh. Corner is their biggest need and it's sounding more and more like Revis comes off the board before Hall.

11. San Francisco 49ers - Patrick Willis ILB Ole Miss. Slam dunk pick. As a coach/coordinator Mike Nolan has had Ray Lewis and Derek Smith at MLB as starters and no one else. Think he wants an upgrade?

12. Buffalo Bills - Leon Hall CB Michigan. It was between him and Lynch, but I think character issues make Lynch slide a little.

13. St. Louis Rams - Ted Ginn, Jr WR Ohio State. Could be a smokescreen but I hear the Rams are making goo goo eyes at Ginn.

14. Carolina Panthers - Greg Olsen TE Miami. Huge need for Carolina, seems like a match.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Adam Carriker DE Nebraska. They're talking about moving to a 4-3, Carriker can play inside in a 4-3 or outside in a 3-4.

16. Green Bay Packers - Marshawn Lynch RB California. The Packers have been linked to Lynch for months. This pick might also be in play for Randy Moss.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas. At 6'6" 288 lbs you love the size.

18. Cincinatti Bengals - Lawrence Timmons OLB Florida State. The Bengals will take the best defensive player available, and all their starting LBs from last year are gone.

19. San Diego Chargers from Tennessee Titans for Michael Turner - Robert Meachem WR Tennessee. I see the Titans trading their 1st for the Chargers 1st and Michael Turner, and the Chargers need a difference maker at WR.

20. New York Giants - Joe Staley OT Central Michigan. Not a sexy pick but they've desperately needed a LT since Petitgout left.

21. Detroit Lions from Denver Broncos - Aaron Ross CB Texas. They got rid of Bly because he didn't fit the Cover 2, Ross would make a lot of sense here.

22. Dallas Cowboys - Alan Branch DT Michigan. Jerry Jones will end someone's slide here.

23. Kansas City Chiefs - Dwayne Bowe WR LSU. Some day the chefs will find a receiver.

24. New England Patriots - Brandon Meriweather S Miami. Both their safeties are coming off of major injuries.

25. New York Jets - Jarvis Moss DE/OLB Miami. Other options here are Anthony Spencer (Moss is a better fit for the 3-4), Ross, or Chris Houston.

26. Philadelphia Eagles - Michael Griffin S Texas. The Eagles will definitely take a defensive back, I'll say they go with one who can play special teams.

27. New Orleans Saints - Justin Harrell DT Tennessee. Cornerback was their biggest need, but they just signed Jason David to a big offer sheet.

28. New England Patriots - David Harris ILB Michigan. PFT says mark it down.

29. Detroit Lions from Baltimore Ravens, Ravens receive 34th and 101st picks - John Beck QB BYU. I'm going to go out on a huge limb here, but mark my words: between Oakland, Cleveland, Detroit, and Miami, someone is going to make a move to reach for the third quarterback taken.

30. Tennessee Titans from San Diego Chargers - Dwayne Jarrett WR USC. Teams like the Titans always draft WRs in the first round, and I love reuniting these PTPers from the 2006 Rose Bowl.

31. Chicago Bears - Jon Beason OLB Miami. OLB is a need even if they get Briggs signed.

32. Indianapolis Colts - Paul Posluszny OLB Penn State. With Cato June gone they have a big hole, and this guy just looks like a member of the Colts' defense (not a compliment).